Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget, 14–20 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 25.0% 23.6–26.5% 23.2–26.9% 22.8–27.2% 22.2–28.0%
Venstre 19.5% 19.3% 18.1–20.7% 17.7–21.1% 17.4–21.4% 16.8–22.1%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 18.5% 17.3–19.9% 16.9–20.2% 16.6–20.6% 16.0–21.2%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 9.2% 8.3–10.2% 8.0–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.4–11.3%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 5.7% 5.0–6.6% 4.8–6.8% 4.7–7.0% 4.3–7.5%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 5.4% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.5% 4.4–6.7% 4.1–7.1%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.5–6.3%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.6% 4.0–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.2%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.3% 3.7–5.1% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.1% 1.7–2.7% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.0% 1.3–3.3%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 43 42–48 41–48 39–48 39–48
Venstre 34 35 33–37 33–37 31–38 29–38
Dansk Folkeparti 37 31 29–34 29–36 29–37 28–38
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 16 16–19 15–19 14–19 13–20
Radikale Venstre 8 10 9–11 9–12 9–13 9–13
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 10 9–11 9–11 7–11 7–12
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
Alternativet 9 7 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Liberal Alliance 13 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Nye Borgerlige 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 3% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 97%  
41 3% 97%  
42 19% 94%  
43 29% 76% Median
44 2% 47%  
45 2% 45%  
46 4% 42%  
47 27% 39% Last Result
48 12% 12%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 0.2% 98%  
31 0.9% 98%  
32 1.0% 97%  
33 24% 96%  
34 12% 71% Last Result
35 29% 59% Median
36 6% 31%  
37 20% 24%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 12% 99.5%  
30 18% 87%  
31 32% 69% Median
32 2% 37%  
33 2% 35%  
34 23% 33%  
35 4% 10%  
36 2% 6%  
37 3% 4% Last Result
38 0.8% 0.8%  
39 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 3% 99.1% Last Result
15 5% 96%  
16 45% 91% Median
17 16% 46%  
18 3% 30%  
19 26% 27%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100% Last Result
9 33% 99.7%  
10 53% 66% Median
11 3% 13%  
12 5% 10%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100% Last Result
8 2% 97%  
9 44% 95%  
10 22% 51% Median
11 28% 29%  
12 0.5% 0.8%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100% Last Result
7 1.3% 99.5%  
8 5% 98%  
9 69% 93% Median
10 23% 24%  
11 1.3% 1.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 66% 98% Median
8 10% 32%  
9 21% 22% Last Result
10 1.4% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 29% 97%  
8 44% 68% Median
9 22% 24%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 0% 62%  
2 0% 62%  
3 0% 62%  
4 36% 62% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0.2% 0.4%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 87 43% 86–92 86–92 83–92 83–94
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 88 4% 83–89 83–89 83–92 81–92
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 90 88 4% 83–89 83–89 83–92 81–92
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 83 0.1% 81–87 81–88 81–88 77–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 83 0.1% 81–87 81–88 81–88 77–89
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 80 0% 77–85 77–85 76–85 76–86
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 77 0% 76–82 75–82 73–82 72–83
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 70 0% 68–75 67–75 66–75 64–75
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 64 0% 61–66 61–66 60–67 59–68
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 53 0% 51–57 51–57 49–58 49–59
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 52 0% 49–55 49–55 47–56 46–56
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 44 0% 42–47 42–47 39–47 38–47
Venstre 34 35 0% 33–37 33–37 31–38 29–38

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 3% 99.9%  
84 0.5% 97%  
85 0.2% 96% Last Result
86 22% 96% Median
87 27% 75%  
88 4% 47%  
89 0.9% 43%  
90 12% 43% Majority
91 3% 31%  
92 26% 27%  
93 0.5% 1.5%  
94 0.7% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.7% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 26% 98.5%  
84 3% 73%  
85 12% 69%  
86 0.9% 57%  
87 4% 57% Median
88 27% 53%  
89 22% 25%  
90 0.2% 4% Last Result, Majority
91 0.5% 4%  
92 3% 3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.7% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 26% 98.5%  
84 3% 73%  
85 12% 69%  
86 0.9% 57%  
87 4% 57% Median
88 27% 53%  
89 22% 25%  
90 0.2% 4% Last Result, Majority
91 0.5% 4%  
92 3% 3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.1% 99.4%  
79 0.1% 99.3%  
80 0.6% 99.2%  
81 13% 98.6%  
82 0.8% 86%  
83 49% 85% Median
84 5% 36%  
85 19% 31%  
86 0.7% 12%  
87 4% 11%  
88 6% 7%  
89 1.2% 1.3%  
90 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.1% 99.4%  
79 0.1% 99.3%  
80 0.6% 99.2%  
81 13% 98.6%  
82 0.8% 86%  
83 49% 85% Median
84 5% 36%  
85 19% 31%  
86 0.7% 12%  
87 4% 11%  
88 6% 7%  
89 1.2% 1.3%  
90 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 4% 99.7% Last Result
77 19% 96%  
78 1.1% 77%  
79 4% 76% Median
80 28% 73%  
81 2% 44%  
82 0.9% 42%  
83 15% 42%  
84 0.2% 27%  
85 26% 27%  
86 0.8% 0.9%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.5% 100%  
72 0% 99.5%  
73 3% 99.5%  
74 0.9% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 4% 93% Median
77 44% 89% Last Result
78 5% 46%  
79 2% 41%  
80 0.5% 39%  
81 12% 38%  
82 25% 26%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0% 0.3%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.5% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.5%  
66 3% 98.8%  
67 1.3% 96%  
68 22% 95% Last Result
69 4% 73% Median
70 29% 69%  
71 0.4% 40%  
72 0.7% 39%  
73 1.3% 39%  
74 12% 37%  
75 25% 26%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 4% 99.5%  
61 18% 96%  
62 6% 78% Last Result
63 0.8% 72% Median
64 22% 71%  
65 4% 49%  
66 40% 45%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.8% 1.0%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 3% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 97%  
51 18% 96%  
52 1.1% 78%  
53 27% 77% Median
54 1.2% 50%  
55 0.5% 49% Last Result
56 6% 48%  
57 38% 42%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 0% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 0.4% 97%  
49 23% 97%  
50 0.8% 74%  
51 5% 73%  
52 38% 68% Median
53 8% 30% Last Result
54 0.8% 22%  
55 18% 21%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.8%  
39 0.7% 98%  
40 1.1% 97% Last Result
41 0.8% 96%  
42 24% 96%  
43 13% 71%  
44 28% 58% Median
45 4% 30%  
46 5% 26%  
47 20% 21%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 0.2% 98%  
31 0.9% 98%  
32 1.0% 97%  
33 24% 96%  
34 12% 71% Last Result
35 29% 59% Median
36 6% 31%  
37 20% 24%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations