Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget, 17–23 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.9% 25.3–28.5% 24.8–29.0% 24.4–29.4% 23.7–30.3%
Venstre 19.5% 19.2% 17.8–20.7% 17.4–21.1% 17.1–21.5% 16.4–22.2%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.3% 14.4–20.0%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 9.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.6–11.4% 8.4–11.7% 7.9–12.3%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 5.2% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.6% 3.8–7.1%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.5–6.7%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 4.7% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.6–6.1% 3.3–6.5%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.5% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.8% 3.1–6.2%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.1% 3.5–5.0% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.8%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.7%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 48 45–51 44–51 42–52 41–55
Venstre 34 33 31–37 31–37 30–38 29–39
Dansk Folkeparti 37 31 27–33 26–34 25–34 25–36
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 17 16–19 15–21 15–21 13–22
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 9 7–11 7–11 7–12 7–12
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 9 7–11 7–11 6–12 6–12
Radikale Venstre 8 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Liberal Alliance 13 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Alternativet 9 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Nye Borgerlige 0 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 1.4% 97%  
44 4% 96%  
45 26% 92%  
46 12% 67%  
47 3% 54% Last Result
48 6% 51% Median
49 14% 45%  
50 17% 30%  
51 9% 14%  
52 3% 5%  
53 0.7% 2%  
54 0.3% 1.2%  
55 0.6% 0.9%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 1.2% 99.6%  
30 3% 98%  
31 26% 96%  
32 17% 70%  
33 10% 53% Median
34 9% 43% Last Result
35 18% 35%  
36 7% 17%  
37 7% 10%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.3%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 4% 99.9%  
26 3% 96%  
27 5% 94%  
28 14% 89%  
29 5% 75%  
30 15% 70%  
31 20% 55% Median
32 6% 36%  
33 23% 30%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
38 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 0.6% 98% Last Result
15 8% 98%  
16 24% 90%  
17 39% 66% Median
18 11% 27%  
19 8% 16%  
20 2% 8%  
21 5% 6%  
22 1.1% 1.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100% Last Result
7 13% 99.7%  
8 9% 87%  
9 41% 78% Median
10 18% 36%  
11 15% 18%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 16% 96% Last Result
8 10% 80%  
9 40% 70% Median
10 9% 30%  
11 18% 21%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 16% 98%  
8 23% 82% Last Result
9 47% 59% Median
10 8% 13%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 6% 99.6%  
7 20% 93%  
8 23% 73% Median
9 40% 50%  
10 9% 10%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.5% 99.9%  
6 14% 98%  
7 22% 84%  
8 50% 62% Median
9 8% 12% Last Result
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 0% 83%  
4 41% 83% Median
5 36% 42%  
6 5% 6%  
7 1.2% 1.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 85 90 56% 86–94 86–95 84–96 83–97
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 85 4% 81–89 80–89 79–91 78–92
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 90 85 4% 81–89 80–89 79–91 78–92
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 76 82 0.8% 79–86 78–87 77–88 74–91
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 81 0.2% 79–85 77–86 76–87 74–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 81 0.1% 79–85 76–85 76–87 75–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 81 0.1% 79–85 76–85 76–87 75–89
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 73 0% 71–77 69–78 68–80 67–82
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 62 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–70 57–73
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 56 0% 53–60 52–60 51–61 49–64
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 50 0% 48–54 48–55 47–56 45–58
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 42 0% 39–46 39–47 39–47 38–49
Venstre 34 33 0% 31–37 31–37 30–38 29–39

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.3% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.6%  
83 0.9% 99.5%  
84 2% 98.6%  
85 0.8% 96% Last Result
86 7% 96%  
87 6% 89%  
88 23% 83%  
89 4% 60%  
90 18% 56% Majority
91 8% 37% Median
92 12% 30%  
93 7% 18%  
94 5% 12%  
95 4% 7%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.6% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 2% 98.9%  
80 4% 97%  
81 5% 93%  
82 7% 88%  
83 12% 82%  
84 8% 70%  
85 18% 63% Median
86 4% 44%  
87 23% 40%  
88 6% 17%  
89 7% 11%  
90 0.8% 4% Last Result, Majority
91 2% 4%  
92 0.9% 1.4%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 2% 98.9%  
80 4% 97%  
81 5% 93%  
82 7% 88%  
83 12% 82%  
84 8% 70%  
85 18% 62% Median
86 4% 44%  
87 23% 40%  
88 6% 17%  
89 7% 11%  
90 0.7% 4% Last Result, Majority
91 2% 3%  
92 0.9% 1.4%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.4%  
76 1.4% 99.2% Last Result
77 2% 98%  
78 1.5% 95%  
79 8% 94%  
80 22% 86%  
81 8% 64%  
82 16% 56%  
83 4% 40% Median
84 8% 37%  
85 16% 28%  
86 6% 13%  
87 2% 7%  
88 3% 5%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.8% Majority
91 0.5% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.4%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 95% Last Result
78 0.9% 92%  
79 29% 91%  
80 5% 62%  
81 14% 57%  
82 5% 43% Median
83 12% 38%  
84 13% 26%  
85 5% 13%  
86 3% 8%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.7% 0.9%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Majority
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.9%  
76 4% 98%  
77 0.9% 94%  
78 2% 93%  
79 14% 90%  
80 11% 76%  
81 16% 66% Median
82 26% 50%  
83 5% 23%  
84 4% 18%  
85 10% 14%  
86 1.0% 4%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 1.0% 1.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.8%  
76 4% 98%  
77 1.0% 94%  
78 2% 93%  
79 14% 90%  
80 11% 76%  
81 16% 66% Median
82 26% 50%  
83 5% 23%  
84 4% 18%  
85 10% 13%  
86 1.0% 4%  
87 1.0% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 1.0% 1.2%  
90 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 3% 98.9% Last Result
69 3% 96%  
70 1.4% 93%  
71 23% 92%  
72 10% 69%  
73 16% 59%  
74 4% 43% Median
75 7% 39%  
76 6% 32%  
77 17% 26%  
78 5% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.3% 1.0%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.5%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 5% 97%  
61 3% 92%  
62 5% 89% Last Result
63 23% 84%  
64 7% 61%  
65 5% 54%  
66 17% 50% Median
67 4% 33%  
68 14% 29%  
69 10% 15%  
70 3% 6%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.7%  
50 0.9% 99.1%  
51 3% 98%  
52 2% 95%  
53 8% 93%  
54 25% 85%  
55 8% 60% Last Result
56 5% 52%  
57 13% 47% Median
58 6% 34%  
59 17% 28%  
60 7% 11%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.5% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.4%  
64 0.9% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 99.4%  
47 2% 98%  
48 11% 96%  
49 30% 85%  
50 8% 55% Median
51 9% 46%  
52 8% 38%  
53 16% 30% Last Result
54 4% 14%  
55 6% 10%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.5% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.7%  
39 9% 98.8%  
40 27% 90% Last Result
41 9% 62%  
42 6% 54% Median
43 11% 48%  
44 9% 37%  
45 6% 28%  
46 14% 22%  
47 6% 8%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 1.2% 99.6%  
30 3% 98%  
31 26% 96%  
32 17% 70%  
33 10% 53% Median
34 9% 43% Last Result
35 18% 35%  
36 7% 17%  
37 7% 10%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.3%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations