Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget and Jyllands-Posten, 6–11 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.9% 25.3–28.6% 24.9–29.1% 24.5–29.5% 23.7–30.3%
Venstre 19.5% 17.4% 16.0–18.8% 15.7–19.3% 15.3–19.6% 14.7–20.3%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 16.9% 15.6–18.3% 15.2–18.7% 14.9–19.1% 14.3–19.8%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 9.5% 8.5–10.6% 8.2–11.0% 7.9–11.2% 7.5–11.8%
Alternativet 4.8% 5.8% 5.0–6.7% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.2% 4.2–7.7%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.5–6.7%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.6–5.9% 3.3–6.4%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 4.4% 3.8–5.3% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.8% 3.1–6.2%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.0–6.1%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.1% 3.5–5.0% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.8%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 46 43–51 43–52 43–52 42–54
Venstre 34 30 28–34 28–34 28–34 27–36
Dansk Folkeparti 37 31 28–33 26–33 25–33 25–35
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 17 14–20 14–20 14–21 14–22
Alternativet 9 11 8–13 8–13 8–13 8–14
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 8 6–11 6–11 6–11 6–11
Nye Borgerlige 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Radikale Venstre 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 8 7–9 7–9 6–11 5–11
Liberal Alliance 13 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.9% 99.9%  
43 38% 99.0%  
44 0.5% 61%  
45 10% 60%  
46 17% 51% Median
47 19% 34% Last Result
48 0.1% 15%  
49 2% 15%  
50 1.1% 13%  
51 3% 12%  
52 8% 9%  
53 0% 0.7%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 9% 98%  
29 0.5% 89%  
30 44% 88% Median
31 10% 44%  
32 2% 34%  
33 11% 32%  
34 19% 21% Last Result
35 0.9% 2%  
36 1.1% 1.3%  
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.8%  
26 4% 97%  
27 1.2% 93%  
28 4% 92%  
29 21% 88%  
30 1.4% 67%  
31 43% 66% Median
32 6% 23%  
33 16% 17%  
34 0.2% 0.8%  
35 0.6% 0.6%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 11% 99.6% Last Result
15 18% 89%  
16 13% 71%  
17 16% 58% Median
18 14% 42%  
19 2% 28%  
20 23% 26%  
21 0.7% 3%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 27% 99.9%  
9 2% 73% Last Result
10 15% 71%  
11 10% 55% Median
12 34% 45%  
13 9% 12%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 10% 100%  
7 11% 90% Last Result
8 45% 79% Median
9 16% 34%  
10 1.2% 17%  
11 16% 16%  
12 0.1% 0.3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.4% 99.9%  
7 35% 98.6%  
8 37% 64% Median
9 24% 27%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.7%  
7 12% 98%  
8 44% 86% Last Result, Median
9 40% 43%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 1.3% 98% Last Result
7 13% 97%  
8 61% 84% Median
9 18% 23%  
10 1.3% 5%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 12% 98%  
7 56% 87% Median
8 17% 31%  
9 12% 14%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 85 90 62% 87–92 87–94 87–95 85–99
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 85 2% 83–88 81–88 80–88 76–90
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 85 2% 83–88 81–88 80–88 76–90
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti 77 82 0.9% 78–83 78–86 78–87 77–91
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 76 79 0% 77–82 76–84 76–84 75–85
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 78 0% 74–81 72–81 71–81 69–81
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 78 0% 74–81 72–81 71–81 69–81
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 71 0% 68–74 67–76 67–76 67–78
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 62 62 0% 59–67 59–67 59–67 58–70
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 54 0% 51–59 51–61 51–61 50–63
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 46 0% 43–50 43–50 42–50 41–51
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 39 0% 37–42 37–42 35–43 34–44
Venstre 34 30 0% 28–34 28–34 28–34 27–36

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.4% 100%  
85 1.2% 99.6% Last Result
86 0.5% 98%  
87 10% 98%  
88 10% 88%  
89 16% 78%  
90 15% 62% Median, Majority
91 28% 47%  
92 11% 19%  
93 0.4% 8%  
94 3% 8%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.3% 1.3%  
97 0.3% 1.0%  
98 0.1% 0.7%  
99 0.6% 0.6%  
100 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.6% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.4%  
78 0.3% 99.3%  
79 0.3% 99.0%  
80 3% 98.7%  
81 3% 95%  
82 0.4% 92%  
83 11% 92%  
84 28% 81% Median
85 15% 53%  
86 16% 38%  
87 10% 22%  
88 10% 12%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 1.2% 2% Last Result, Majority
91 0.4% 0.4%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.6% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.4%  
78 0.3% 99.3%  
79 0.3% 99.0%  
80 3% 98.7%  
81 3% 95%  
82 0.4% 92%  
83 11% 92%  
84 28% 81% Median
85 15% 53%  
86 16% 38%  
87 10% 22%  
88 10% 12%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 1.2% 2% Last Result, Majority
91 0.4% 0.4%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
78 12% 99.4%  
79 10% 88%  
80 6% 77%  
81 0.9% 71%  
82 28% 71% Median
83 33% 43%  
84 0.8% 9%  
85 2% 9%  
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.5% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.3%  
90 0.3% 0.9% Majority
91 0.6% 0.6%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.3% 100%  
73 0% 99.7%  
74 0% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 7% 99.4% Last Result
77 16% 92%  
78 5% 76%  
79 36% 71% Median
80 1.3% 35%  
81 2% 34%  
82 24% 32%  
83 3% 8%  
84 3% 5%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.3%  
71 3% 99.0%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 94%  
74 9% 92%  
75 1.5% 83%  
76 28% 81% Median
77 1.4% 53%  
78 32% 52%  
79 7% 20%  
80 0.8% 12%  
81 11% 11%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.3%  
71 3% 99.0%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 94%  
74 9% 92%  
75 1.5% 83%  
76 28% 81% Median
77 1.4% 53%  
78 32% 52%  
79 7% 20%  
80 0.8% 12%  
81 11% 11%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.3% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 6% 99.6%  
68 10% 94% Last Result
69 5% 84%  
70 17% 79%  
71 25% 61% Median
72 3% 36%  
73 10% 32%  
74 15% 23%  
75 3% 8%  
76 3% 5%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 32% 99.2%  
60 8% 67%  
61 2% 59%  
62 13% 56% Last Result, Median
63 2% 43%  
64 0.7% 41%  
65 26% 40%  
66 0.5% 14%  
67 11% 13%  
68 0.4% 2%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 24% 99.3%  
52 18% 75%  
53 3% 57%  
54 25% 54% Median
55 2% 29% Last Result
56 12% 26%  
57 0.7% 14%  
58 0.5% 13%  
59 3% 13%  
60 0.4% 9%  
61 8% 9%  
62 0.1% 0.7%  
63 0.6% 0.6%  
64 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 9% 97%  
44 2% 88%  
45 33% 86% Median
46 14% 53%  
47 3% 40%  
48 3% 37%  
49 18% 34%  
50 14% 15%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.7%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 1.1% 97%  
37 18% 96%  
38 24% 77% Median
39 17% 53%  
40 1.0% 36% Last Result
41 13% 35%  
42 19% 22%  
43 1.3% 3%  
44 1.4% 1.5%  
45 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 9% 98%  
29 0.5% 89%  
30 44% 88% Median
31 10% 44%  
32 2% 34%  
33 11% 32%  
34 19% 21% Last Result
35 0.9% 2%  
36 1.1% 1.3%  
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations