Opinion Poll by Epinion for DR, 11–18 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.6% 25.2–28.1% 24.8–28.5% 24.4–28.9% 23.8–29.6%
Venstre 19.5% 19.1% 17.9–20.5% 17.5–20.9% 17.2–21.2% 16.7–21.8%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 18.2% 17.0–19.5% 16.7–19.9% 16.4–20.2% 15.8–20.9%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.6% 7.7–9.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.3–10.1% 6.9–10.6%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 5.6% 4.9–6.4% 4.7–6.7% 4.5–6.9% 4.2–7.3%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 5.4% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.1–7.1%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.5%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.2%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.3–4.8%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.7%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 46 46 46–49 45–49 41–54
Venstre 34 31 31–35 31–36 31–37 30–38
Dansk Folkeparti 37 33 30–33 29–33 29–33 29–35
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 16 14–16 14–16 14–17 12–18
Radikale Venstre 8 10 9–10 8–10 8–11 8–11
Liberal Alliance 13 11 9–11 9–11 8–11 7–12
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 9 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–11
Alternativet 9 7 7–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Nye Borgerlige 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 4–9
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.9% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.1%  
43 0.4% 98.6%  
44 0.6% 98%  
45 2% 98%  
46 86% 95% Median
47 0.7% 10% Last Result
48 0.3% 9%  
49 7% 9%  
50 0.3% 2%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0% 0.9%  
53 0% 0.9%  
54 0.8% 0.8%  
55 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 0% 99.6%  
29 0% 99.6%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 66% 98.7% Median
32 20% 33%  
33 1.5% 14%  
34 1.3% 12% Last Result
35 1.1% 11%  
36 7% 10%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 6% 99.8%  
30 5% 94%  
31 2% 89%  
32 20% 87%  
33 66% 67% Median
34 0.7% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.8%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
38 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 1.4% 99.2%  
14 20% 98% Last Result
15 8% 78%  
16 67% 70% Median
17 2% 3%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 7% 99.9% Last Result
9 5% 93%  
10 85% 88% Median
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.0% 100%  
8 2% 99.0%  
9 8% 97%  
10 20% 89%  
11 68% 69% Median
12 1.1% 1.4%  
13 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100%  
7 21% 99.9% Last Result
8 9% 78%  
9 68% 69% Median
10 0.3% 1.1%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 67% 99.6% Median
8 3% 32%  
9 1.4% 29% Last Result
10 26% 28%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 9% 98%  
6 69% 89% Last Result, Median
7 19% 20%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 2% 99.2%  
6 76% 97% Median
7 20% 21%  
8 0.2% 0.8%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 88 11% 87–90 87–90 86–91 83–92
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 87 2% 85–88 85–88 84–89 83–92
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige 90 87 2% 85–88 85–88 84–89 83–92
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 90 81 0% 79–81 79–81 78–83 77–84
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 90 81 0% 79–81 79–81 78–83 77–84
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 81 0% 77–81 77–81 77–83 75–85
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 78 0% 77–79 77–82 77–82 73–84
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 71 0% 67–71 67–72 67–74 64–76
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 65 0% 63–65 63–65 62–68 59–71
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 56 0% 56–57 56–57 54–58 50–63
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 53 48 0% 48–50 48–50 47–51 44–54
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 37 0% 37–41 37–41 37–42 35–43
Venstre 34 31 0% 31–35 31–36 31–37 30–38

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.6%  
84 0.7% 99.4%  
85 0.2% 98.6% Last Result
86 1.1% 98%  
87 20% 97%  
88 66% 78% Median
89 0.4% 11%  
90 8% 11% Majority
91 1.1% 3%  
92 1.3% 2%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 1.3% 99.7%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 8% 97%  
86 0.4% 89%  
87 66% 89% Median
88 20% 22%  
89 1.1% 3%  
90 0.2% 2% Last Result, Majority
91 0.7% 1.4%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 1.3% 99.7%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 8% 97%  
86 0.4% 89%  
87 66% 89% Median
88 20% 22%  
89 1.1% 3%  
90 0.2% 2% Last Result, Majority
91 0.7% 1.4%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.6%  
78 0.8% 98%  
79 7% 97%  
80 1.5% 90%  
81 85% 88% Median
82 0.3% 4%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.6%  
78 0.8% 98%  
79 7% 97%  
80 1.5% 90%  
81 85% 88% Median
82 0.3% 4%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.4% 100%  
75 0.9% 99.5%  
76 1.0% 98.6% Last Result
77 20% 98%  
78 0.2% 78%  
79 1.3% 78%  
80 7% 76%  
81 66% 70% Median
82 1.2% 4%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.2% 2%  
85 1.2% 1.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 99.6%  
74 0.1% 98.7%  
75 0.3% 98.7%  
76 0.5% 98%  
77 20% 98% Last Result
78 66% 78% Median
79 2% 12%  
80 0.3% 10%  
81 0.9% 10%  
82 7% 9%  
83 1.0% 1.5%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 1.0% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.0%  
66 0% 98.6%  
67 20% 98.6%  
68 2% 79% Last Result
69 0.2% 77%  
70 2% 77%  
71 66% 75% Median
72 6% 9%  
73 0.2% 3%  
74 1.2% 3%  
75 0.2% 1.5%  
76 0.8% 1.3%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.8% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.1%  
61 1.2% 98.8%  
62 0.3% 98% Last Result
63 20% 97%  
64 2% 78%  
65 72% 75% Median
66 0.7% 3%  
67 0.2% 3%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.1% 1.0%  
70 0% 0.9%  
71 0.8% 0.9%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.8% 100%  
51 0% 99.1%  
52 0.5% 99.1%  
53 0.6% 98.6%  
54 2% 98%  
55 0.1% 96% Last Result
56 85% 96% Median
57 8% 11%  
58 0.5% 3%  
59 0.4% 2%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.2% 1.1%  
62 0% 0.9%  
63 0.8% 0.9%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.3% 99.7%  
45 0.2% 99.4%  
46 0.3% 99.2%  
47 2% 99.0%  
48 67% 97% Median
49 19% 30%  
50 8% 11%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 0% 2%  
53 0.1% 2% Last Result
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.5%  
36 0.9% 99.4%  
37 65% 98% Median
38 3% 33%  
39 19% 30%  
40 0.3% 11% Last Result
41 7% 10%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 0% 99.6%  
29 0% 99.6%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 66% 98.7% Median
32 20% 33%  
33 1.5% 14%  
34 1.3% 12% Last Result
35 1.1% 11%  
36 7% 10%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations