Opinion Poll by Greens Analyseinstitut for Børsen, 1 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.9% 25.3–28.6% 24.8–29.1% 24.4–29.5% 23.6–30.3%
Venstre 19.5% 19.6% 18.2–21.2% 17.8–21.6% 17.4–22.0% 16.8–22.8%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 16.4% 15.1–17.9% 14.7–18.3% 14.4–18.7% 13.8–19.4%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 10.0% 9.0–11.2% 8.7–11.6% 8.4–11.9% 7.9–12.5%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 5.9% 5.1–6.9% 4.8–7.1% 4.7–7.4% 4.3–7.9%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.6–6.9%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.1–6.3%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8%
Alternativet 4.8% 3.9% 3.2–4.7% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.6–5.6%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 47 45–48 44–50 44–52 42–52
Venstre 34 34 34–36 32–37 32–37 30–39
Dansk Folkeparti 37 29 28–31 26–31 26–32 24–33
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 19 16–19 16–19 15–23 15–23
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 11 10–12 9–13 8–13 7–14
Radikale Venstre 8 10 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–12
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 8 7–9 6–9 6–11 5–11
Liberal Alliance 13 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Alternativet 9 6 5–8 4–8 4–8 4–9
Nye Borgerlige 0 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 0–7
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.8%  
43 1.2% 99.0%  
44 3% 98%  
45 7% 95%  
46 4% 88%  
47 70% 84% Last Result, Median
48 5% 13%  
49 2% 8%  
50 2% 6%  
51 1.3% 5%  
52 3% 3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 1.1% 99.8%  
31 0.8% 98.6%  
32 5% 98%  
33 3% 93%  
34 68% 90% Last Result, Median
35 4% 22%  
36 10% 19%  
37 7% 9%  
38 0.5% 2%  
39 1.1% 1.5%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 1.5% 99.2%  
26 3% 98%  
27 2% 95%  
28 9% 93%  
29 66% 84% Median
30 5% 18%  
31 10% 13%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100% Last Result
15 5% 99.9%  
16 12% 95%  
17 4% 83%  
18 10% 79%  
19 65% 69% Median
20 0.5% 4%  
21 0.7% 4%  
22 0.1% 3%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.2% 100% Last Result
8 3% 98.8%  
9 2% 96%  
10 18% 93%  
11 64% 76% Median
12 5% 12%  
13 6% 7%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 5% 99.6%  
8 7% 95% Last Result
9 21% 88%  
10 65% 67% Median
11 0.9% 2%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 4% 99.0% Last Result
7 11% 95%  
8 73% 84% Median
9 7% 11%  
10 1.0% 5%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 6% 99.2%  
7 72% 94% Median
8 17% 22%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 9% 100%  
5 3% 91%  
6 61% 88% Median
7 10% 27%  
8 15% 17%  
9 1.1% 2% Last Result
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 70% 99.2% Median
5 12% 29%  
6 14% 16%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 85 93 81% 87–93 86–94 86–96 86–97
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 76 87 1.3% 82–87 81–87 81–89 79–90
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 82 0.3% 82–88 81–89 79–89 78–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 90 82 0.3% 82–88 81–89 79–89 78–89
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 83 0.1% 77–84 77–85 77–87 76–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 78 0% 77–83 76–83 75–83 72–84
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 78 0% 77–83 76–83 75–83 72–84
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 77 0% 73–77 72–79 71–80 70–81
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 62 68 0% 65–68 63–70 63–70 61–73
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 57 0% 54–58 53–59 52–60 51–61
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 49 0% 48–52 47–54 46–54 44–57
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 42 0% 41–44 39–46 39–46 37–48
Venstre 34 34 0% 34–36 32–37 32–37 30–39

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
86 9% 99.7%  
87 1.0% 90%  
88 3% 89%  
89 5% 86%  
90 0.6% 81% Majority
91 0.4% 80%  
92 2% 80%  
93 71% 78% Median
94 3% 6%  
95 1.0% 4%  
96 0.7% 3%  
97 2% 2%  
98 0% 0.3%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0% 99.8% Last Result
77 0% 99.8%  
78 0.1% 99.7%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0.9% 99.5%  
81 7% 98.6%  
82 10% 92%  
83 2% 82%  
84 0.8% 80%  
85 9% 79%  
86 3% 70%  
87 64% 67% Median
88 0.4% 3%  
89 1.5% 3%  
90 0.9% 1.3% Majority
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0% 99.7%  
78 2% 99.7%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 1.0% 97%  
81 3% 96%  
82 71% 94% Median
83 2% 22%  
84 0.4% 20%  
85 0.6% 20%  
86 5% 19%  
87 3% 14%  
88 1.0% 11%  
89 9% 10%  
90 0.1% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0% 99.7%  
78 2% 99.7%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 1.0% 97%  
81 3% 96%  
82 71% 94% Median
83 2% 22%  
84 0.4% 20%  
85 0.6% 20%  
86 5% 19%  
87 3% 14%  
88 1.0% 11%  
89 9% 10%  
90 0.1% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.7% 99.9%  
77 10% 99.3% Last Result
78 3% 90%  
79 1.1% 87%  
80 0.6% 86%  
81 0.7% 85%  
82 5% 84%  
83 63% 80% Median
84 9% 17%  
85 3% 8%  
86 2% 5%  
87 0.1% 3%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 1.0% 1.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.9% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 98.8%  
74 0.9% 98.6%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 5% 97%  
77 8% 92%  
78 63% 84% Median
79 0.7% 21%  
80 2% 20%  
81 1.3% 18%  
82 5% 17%  
83 11% 12%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.9% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 98.8%  
74 0.9% 98.6%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 5% 97%  
77 8% 92%  
78 63% 84% Median
79 0.7% 21%  
80 2% 20%  
81 1.3% 18%  
82 5% 17%  
83 11% 12%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.6%  
71 4% 99.1%  
72 0.7% 95%  
73 10% 95%  
74 5% 85%  
75 0.5% 80%  
76 10% 79%  
77 60% 69% Median
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.6% 3%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
63 5% 98.9%  
64 3% 94%  
65 1.4% 91%  
66 13% 90%  
67 6% 76%  
68 65% 71% Median
69 0.1% 5%  
70 3% 5%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.1% 1.0%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0% 0.4%  
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.6%  
52 3% 99.3%  
53 5% 96%  
54 7% 92%  
55 0.4% 85% Last Result
56 10% 85%  
57 64% 75% Median
58 4% 10%  
59 2% 6%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.8% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 1.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 98.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 5% 92%  
49 61% 87% Median
50 5% 26%  
51 2% 20%  
52 10% 18%  
53 2% 8% Last Result
54 4% 5%  
55 0.3% 1.3%  
56 0.4% 1.0%  
57 0.5% 0.5%  
58 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.9% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.1%  
39 3% 98%  
40 0.5% 95% Last Result
41 10% 94%  
42 62% 85% Median
43 4% 23%  
44 10% 19%  
45 2% 9%  
46 5% 7%  
47 0.3% 1.3%  
48 1.0% 1.0%  
49 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 1.1% 99.8%  
31 0.8% 98.6%  
32 5% 98%  
33 3% 93%  
34 68% 90% Last Result, Median
35 4% 22%  
36 10% 19%  
37 7% 9%  
38 0.5% 2%  
39 1.1% 1.5%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations