Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget, 3–9 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.8% 25.2–28.5% 24.8–29.0% 24.4–29.4% 23.6–30.2%
Venstre 19.5% 18.7% 17.3–20.2% 16.9–20.6% 16.6–21.0% 15.9–21.7%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 17.7% 16.4–19.2% 16.0–19.6% 15.7–20.0% 15.0–20.7%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.7% 7.7–9.8% 7.5–10.1% 7.2–10.4% 6.8–11.0%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 5.9% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.1% 4.7–7.3% 4.3–7.8%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 5.1% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.3% 4.0–6.5% 3.7–7.0%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 5.1% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.3% 4.0–6.5% 3.7–7.0%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.7% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.9% 3.7–6.1% 3.3–6.5%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 3.7% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.8% 2.8–5.0% 2.5–5.4%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.9%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.4–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 49 46–50 46–53 46–53 43–53
Venstre 34 34 31–35 31–35 31–35 29–35
Dansk Folkeparti 37 30 29–31 28–32 28–32 28–34
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 15 15–17 15–18 13–18 12–20
Radikale Venstre 8 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Liberal Alliance 13 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 6–11
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Alternativet 9 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–11
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 5 5–9 4–9 4–9 4–9
Nye Borgerlige 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 0–6
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 0.1% 99.2%  
45 1.4% 99.1%  
46 10% 98%  
47 6% 87% Last Result
48 1.0% 81%  
49 64% 80% Median
50 6% 16%  
51 3% 10%  
52 0.6% 7%  
53 6% 6%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.3%  
31 13% 99.1%  
32 22% 86%  
33 2% 65%  
34 41% 62% Last Result, Median
35 21% 21%  
36 0.2% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 9% 99.8%  
29 21% 91%  
30 23% 70% Median
31 40% 47%  
32 6% 7%  
33 0.2% 1.1%  
34 0.4% 0.9%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.3%  
14 0.9% 96% Last Result
15 50% 96% Median
16 31% 46%  
17 6% 15%  
18 6% 8%  
19 0.4% 2%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
9 24% 99.8%  
10 47% 76% Median
11 17% 29%  
12 12% 12%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.4%  
8 11% 99.1%  
9 21% 88%  
10 40% 67% Median
11 26% 27%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0.1% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
8 45% 98.8%  
9 17% 54% Median
10 23% 36%  
11 13% 13%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 21% 99.5%  
8 37% 79% Median
9 40% 42% Last Result
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.6%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100%  
5 64% 94% Median
6 8% 30% Last Result
7 4% 22%  
8 8% 18%  
9 10% 10%  
10 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 87% 98% Median
5 11% 12%  
6 0.3% 0.6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 91 98.8% 91–95 91–96 91–96 88–96
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 84 0.1% 82–87 82–88 82–88 79–88
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 81 0% 81–84 79–86 79–86 77–86
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 84 0.2% 80–84 79–84 79–84 79–87
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige 90 84 0.2% 80–84 79–84 79–84 79–87
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 90 80 0% 76–80 74–80 74–82 74–83
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 90 80 0% 76–80 74–80 74–82 74–83
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 73 0% 72–76 71–78 71–78 68–78
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 68 0% 67–71 67–71 65–71 63–73
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 59 0% 57–62 57–63 57–63 53–63
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 53 49 0% 46–51 45–51 45–51 44–52
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 39 0% 37–41 36–41 36–41 36–42
Venstre 34 34 0% 31–35 31–35 31–35 29–35

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.7%  
88 0.7% 99.7%  
89 0.2% 99.0%  
90 0.3% 98.8% Majority
91 65% 98% Median
92 13% 34%  
93 2% 21%  
94 6% 19%  
95 6% 13%  
96 7% 7%  
97 0% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0% 99.9% Last Result
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0.5% 99.5%  
81 0.2% 99.0%  
82 40% 98.9%  
83 6% 59% Median
84 33% 53%  
85 2% 20%  
86 6% 18%  
87 6% 12%  
88 6% 6%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.1% 99.7%  
77 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
78 0.5% 99.4%  
79 6% 98.9%  
80 0.3% 93%  
81 49% 92% Median
82 26% 44%  
83 5% 18%  
84 6% 13%  
85 0.7% 7%  
86 6% 6%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 7% 99.8%  
80 6% 93%  
81 6% 87%  
82 2% 81%  
83 13% 79% Median
84 65% 66%  
85 0.3% 2%  
86 0.2% 1.2%  
87 0.7% 1.0%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 7% 99.8%  
80 6% 93%  
81 6% 87%  
82 2% 81%  
83 13% 79% Median
84 65% 66%  
85 0.3% 2%  
86 0.2% 1.2%  
87 0.7% 1.0%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 7% 99.8%  
75 0.8% 93%  
76 6% 92%  
77 6% 87%  
78 4% 81%  
79 10% 78% Median
80 65% 67%  
81 0.3% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.3%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 7% 99.8%  
75 0.9% 93%  
76 6% 92%  
77 6% 87%  
78 4% 81%  
79 10% 78% Median
80 65% 67%  
81 0.3% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.3%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
69 0.2% 99.5%  
70 0.4% 99.3%  
71 6% 98.9%  
72 39% 93%  
73 11% 54% Median
74 6% 43%  
75 25% 37%  
76 6% 12%  
77 0.1% 6%  
78 6% 6%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.8% Last Result
63 0.7% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.1%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 0.8% 97%  
67 39% 96%  
68 36% 58% Median
69 6% 21%  
70 0.2% 15%  
71 14% 15%  
72 0% 1.1%  
73 1.0% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.2%  
55 1.4% 99.1% Last Result
56 0.2% 98%  
57 11% 98%  
58 21% 87%  
59 45% 66% Median
60 9% 21%  
61 0.2% 13%  
62 6% 13%  
63 7% 7%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 6% 99.2%  
46 12% 94%  
47 0.4% 81%  
48 1.5% 81%  
49 49% 79% Median
50 9% 31%  
51 22% 22%  
52 0.2% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 6% 99.8%  
37 12% 94%  
38 1.4% 82%  
39 46% 81% Median
40 20% 35% Last Result
41 14% 15%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.3%  
31 13% 99.1%  
32 22% 86%  
33 2% 65%  
34 41% 62% Last Result, Median
35 21% 21%  
36 0.2% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations