Opinion Poll by Kantar Gallup for Berlingske, 11 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Socialdemokraterne |
26.3% |
27.1% |
25.8–28.5% |
25.4–29.0% |
25.0–29.3% |
24.4–30.0% |
Venstre |
19.5% |
18.8% |
17.6–20.1% |
17.3–20.5% |
17.0–20.8% |
16.5–21.4% |
Dansk Folkeparti |
21.1% |
17.2% |
16.1–18.4% |
15.7–18.8% |
15.5–19.1% |
14.9–19.7% |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne |
7.8% |
8.8% |
7.9–9.7% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.5–10.2% |
7.1–10.7% |
Radikale Venstre |
4.6% |
5.8% |
5.1–6.6% |
4.9–6.8% |
4.8–7.0% |
4.5–7.4% |
Socialistisk Folkeparti |
4.2% |
5.3% |
4.7–6.1% |
4.5–6.3% |
4.3–6.5% |
4.0–6.9% |
Liberal Alliance |
7.5% |
5.2% |
4.6–6.0% |
4.4–6.2% |
4.2–6.4% |
3.9–6.8% |
Alternativet |
4.8% |
4.7% |
4.1–5.5% |
3.9–5.7% |
3.8–5.9% |
3.5–6.2% |
Det Konservative Folkeparti |
3.4% |
3.8% |
3.3–4.5% |
3.1–4.7% |
3.0–4.9% |
2.8–5.2% |
Nye Borgerlige |
0.0% |
2.5% |
2.1–3.1% |
2.0–3.2% |
1.9–3.4% |
1.7–3.7% |
Kristendemokraterne |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Socialdemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
45 |
9% |
96% |
|
46 |
47% |
87% |
Median |
47 |
4% |
39% |
Last Result |
48 |
13% |
36% |
|
49 |
7% |
22% |
|
50 |
9% |
16% |
|
51 |
5% |
7% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
31 |
44% |
93% |
Median |
32 |
23% |
49% |
|
33 |
3% |
26% |
|
34 |
6% |
23% |
Last Result |
35 |
12% |
17% |
|
36 |
2% |
5% |
|
37 |
3% |
3% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Dansk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
21% |
98% |
|
29 |
10% |
76% |
|
30 |
5% |
67% |
|
31 |
46% |
62% |
Median |
32 |
3% |
16% |
|
33 |
6% |
13% |
|
34 |
7% |
7% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
7% |
96% |
Last Result |
15 |
16% |
88% |
|
16 |
16% |
73% |
|
17 |
7% |
57% |
Median |
18 |
39% |
49% |
|
19 |
10% |
10% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Radikale Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
8% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
9 |
23% |
92% |
|
10 |
41% |
70% |
Median |
11 |
19% |
29% |
|
12 |
8% |
10% |
|
13 |
2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistisk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
45% |
99.6% |
|
9 |
19% |
54% |
Median |
10 |
27% |
35% |
|
11 |
3% |
8% |
|
12 |
5% |
5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
13% |
95% |
|
9 |
12% |
82% |
|
10 |
25% |
70% |
Median |
11 |
37% |
45% |
|
12 |
8% |
8% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternativet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
4% |
100% |
|
7 |
9% |
96% |
|
8 |
22% |
87% |
|
9 |
51% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
10 |
14% |
14% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
24% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
7 |
68% |
76% |
Median |
8 |
5% |
8% |
|
9 |
3% |
3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nye Borgerlige
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
98% |
|
2 |
0% |
98% |
|
3 |
0% |
98% |
|
4 |
78% |
98% |
Median |
5 |
19% |
21% |
|
6 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
7 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristendemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet |
85 |
91 |
84% |
89–95 |
87–95 |
85–96 |
85–98 |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne |
90 |
84 |
3% |
80–86 |
80–88 |
79–90 |
77–90 |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige |
90 |
84 |
3% |
80–86 |
80–88 |
79–90 |
77–90 |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti |
76 |
82 |
0.5% |
81–86 |
79–88 |
77–89 |
77–90 |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet |
77 |
81 |
0% |
78–85 |
77–86 |
74–87 |
74–87 |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne |
90 |
80 |
0% |
76–82 |
75–84 |
75–85 |
74–85 |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti |
90 |
80 |
0% |
76–82 |
75–84 |
75–85 |
74–85 |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti |
68 |
72 |
0% |
70–77 |
69–78 |
66–79 |
66–79 |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti |
62 |
66 |
0% |
64–70 |
64–70 |
63–71 |
62–73 |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre |
55 |
56 |
0% |
55–60 |
55–61 |
55–62 |
53–64 |
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti |
53 |
49 |
0% |
46–53 |
46–54 |
46–54 |
45–54 |
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti |
40 |
38 |
0% |
37–42 |
36–42 |
36–44 |
36–44 |
Venstre |
34 |
31 |
0% |
31–35 |
30–35 |
30–37 |
29–37 |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
84 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
85 |
3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
86 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
87 |
2% |
97% |
|
88 |
3% |
95% |
|
89 |
9% |
92% |
|
90 |
5% |
84% |
Majority |
91 |
43% |
79% |
Median |
92 |
7% |
36% |
|
93 |
13% |
29% |
|
94 |
5% |
17% |
|
95 |
7% |
12% |
|
96 |
3% |
5% |
|
97 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
98 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
99 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
75 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
77 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
78 |
1.4% |
99.5% |
|
79 |
3% |
98% |
|
80 |
7% |
95% |
|
81 |
5% |
88% |
|
82 |
13% |
83% |
|
83 |
7% |
71% |
Median |
84 |
43% |
64% |
|
85 |
5% |
21% |
|
86 |
9% |
16% |
|
87 |
3% |
8% |
|
88 |
2% |
5% |
|
89 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
90 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result, Majority |
91 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
75 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
77 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
78 |
1.4% |
99.5% |
|
79 |
3% |
98% |
|
80 |
7% |
95% |
|
81 |
5% |
88% |
|
82 |
13% |
83% |
|
83 |
7% |
71% |
Median |
84 |
43% |
64% |
|
85 |
5% |
21% |
|
86 |
9% |
16% |
|
87 |
3% |
8% |
|
88 |
2% |
5% |
|
89 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
90 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result, Majority |
91 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
76 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
77 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
79 |
3% |
97% |
|
80 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
81 |
10% |
93% |
|
82 |
41% |
82% |
Median |
83 |
8% |
41% |
|
84 |
19% |
34% |
|
85 |
4% |
15% |
|
86 |
2% |
11% |
|
87 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
88 |
5% |
8% |
|
89 |
3% |
3% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
Majority |
91 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
2% |
100% |
|
75 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
76 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
77 |
3% |
97% |
Last Result |
78 |
9% |
94% |
|
79 |
5% |
84% |
|
80 |
2% |
79% |
|
81 |
37% |
77% |
Median |
82 |
12% |
40% |
|
83 |
3% |
28% |
|
84 |
14% |
25% |
|
85 |
4% |
12% |
|
86 |
4% |
8% |
|
87 |
4% |
4% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
75 |
6% |
98% |
|
76 |
3% |
92% |
|
77 |
7% |
88% |
|
78 |
14% |
81% |
|
79 |
3% |
67% |
Median |
80 |
45% |
64% |
|
81 |
2% |
18% |
|
82 |
10% |
16% |
|
83 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
84 |
2% |
5% |
|
85 |
3% |
3% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
87 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result, Majority |
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
75 |
6% |
98% |
|
76 |
3% |
92% |
|
77 |
7% |
88% |
|
78 |
14% |
81% |
|
79 |
3% |
67% |
Median |
80 |
46% |
64% |
|
81 |
2% |
18% |
|
82 |
10% |
16% |
|
83 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
84 |
2% |
5% |
|
85 |
3% |
3% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
87 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result, Majority |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
66 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
68 |
0.4% |
97% |
Last Result |
69 |
3% |
97% |
|
70 |
9% |
94% |
|
71 |
4% |
84% |
|
72 |
41% |
80% |
Median |
73 |
6% |
39% |
|
74 |
10% |
33% |
|
75 |
10% |
23% |
|
76 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
77 |
5% |
12% |
|
78 |
3% |
7% |
|
79 |
4% |
4% |
|
80 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
63 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
64 |
37% |
97% |
|
65 |
9% |
59% |
Median |
66 |
15% |
51% |
|
67 |
9% |
36% |
|
68 |
7% |
27% |
|
69 |
7% |
20% |
|
70 |
9% |
13% |
|
71 |
2% |
4% |
|
72 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
73 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
0.8% |
99.0% |
|
55 |
11% |
98% |
Last Result |
56 |
47% |
87% |
Median |
57 |
9% |
40% |
|
58 |
8% |
31% |
|
59 |
6% |
23% |
|
60 |
8% |
16% |
|
61 |
6% |
8% |
|
62 |
2% |
3% |
|
63 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
64 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
46 |
13% |
98.9% |
|
47 |
10% |
86% |
|
48 |
9% |
76% |
Median |
49 |
47% |
67% |
|
50 |
2% |
20% |
|
51 |
3% |
19% |
|
52 |
5% |
16% |
|
53 |
2% |
10% |
Last Result |
54 |
8% |
8% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
4% |
94% |
|
38 |
49% |
90% |
Median |
39 |
14% |
41% |
|
40 |
6% |
28% |
Last Result |
41 |
5% |
22% |
|
42 |
12% |
17% |
|
43 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
44 |
3% |
3% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
31 |
44% |
93% |
Median |
32 |
23% |
49% |
|
33 |
3% |
26% |
|
34 |
6% |
23% |
Last Result |
35 |
12% |
17% |
|
36 |
2% |
5% |
|
37 |
3% |
3% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Gallup
- Commissioner(s): Berlingske
- Fieldwork period: 11 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1674
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.71%