Opinion Poll by Kantar Gallup for Berlingske, 11 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 27.1% 25.8–28.5% 25.4–29.0% 25.0–29.3% 24.4–30.0%
Venstre 19.5% 18.8% 17.6–20.1% 17.3–20.5% 17.0–20.8% 16.5–21.4%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 17.2% 16.1–18.4% 15.7–18.8% 15.5–19.1% 14.9–19.7%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.8% 7.9–9.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.5–10.2% 7.1–10.7%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 5.8% 5.1–6.6% 4.9–6.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.5–7.4%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 5.3% 4.7–6.1% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.0–6.9%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 5.2% 4.6–6.0% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.8%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.5–6.2%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 3.8% 3.3–4.5% 3.1–4.7% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.2%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.1% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.7%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 46 45–50 45–51 44–51 43–54
Venstre 34 31 31–35 30–35 30–37 29–37
Dansk Folkeparti 37 31 28–33 28–34 28–34 26–34
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 17 14–19 14–19 13–19 13–19
Radikale Venstre 8 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 8–13
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 9 8–10 8–12 8–12 8–12
Liberal Alliance 13 10 8–11 8–12 7–12 7–12
Alternativet 9 9 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–10
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 7 6–7 6–8 6–9 5–9
Nye Borgerlige 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 0–6
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.9%  
44 3% 99.1%  
45 9% 96%  
46 47% 87% Median
47 4% 39% Last Result
48 13% 36%  
49 7% 22%  
50 9% 16%  
51 5% 7%  
52 0.4% 1.5%  
53 0.2% 1.1%  
54 0.9% 0.9%  
55 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.8%  
30 6% 98.8%  
31 44% 93% Median
32 23% 49%  
33 3% 26%  
34 6% 23% Last Result
35 12% 17%  
36 2% 5%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 21% 98%  
29 10% 76%  
30 5% 67%  
31 46% 62% Median
32 3% 16%  
33 6% 13%  
34 7% 7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 4% 99.7%  
14 7% 96% Last Result
15 16% 88%  
16 16% 73%  
17 7% 57% Median
18 39% 49%  
19 10% 10%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 8% 99.9% Last Result
9 23% 92%  
10 41% 70% Median
11 19% 29%  
12 8% 10%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100% Last Result
8 45% 99.6%  
9 19% 54% Median
10 27% 35%  
11 3% 8%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 5% 99.9%  
8 13% 95%  
9 12% 82%  
10 25% 70% Median
11 37% 45%  
12 8% 8%  
13 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 9% 96%  
8 22% 87%  
9 51% 64% Last Result, Median
10 14% 14%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.4% 99.8%  
6 24% 99.4% Last Result
7 68% 76% Median
8 5% 8%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 78% 98% Median
5 19% 21%  
6 1.0% 1.3%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 91 84% 89–95 87–95 85–96 85–98
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 84 3% 80–86 80–88 79–90 77–90
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige 90 84 3% 80–86 80–88 79–90 77–90
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 82 0.5% 81–86 79–88 77–89 77–90
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 81 0% 78–85 77–86 74–87 74–87
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 90 80 0% 76–82 75–84 75–85 74–85
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 90 80 0% 76–82 75–84 75–85 74–85
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 72 0% 70–77 69–78 66–79 66–79
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 66 0% 64–70 64–70 63–71 62–73
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 56 0% 55–60 55–61 55–62 53–64
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 53 49 0% 46–53 46–54 46–54 45–54
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 38 0% 37–42 36–42 36–44 36–44
Venstre 34 31 0% 31–35 30–35 30–37 29–37

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 3% 99.9% Last Result
86 0.5% 97%  
87 2% 97%  
88 3% 95%  
89 9% 92%  
90 5% 84% Majority
91 43% 79% Median
92 7% 36%  
93 13% 29%  
94 5% 17%  
95 7% 12%  
96 3% 5%  
97 1.4% 2%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 1.4% 99.5%  
79 3% 98%  
80 7% 95%  
81 5% 88%  
82 13% 83%  
83 7% 71% Median
84 43% 64%  
85 5% 21%  
86 9% 16%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 0.5% 3%  
90 3% 3% Last Result, Majority
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 1.4% 99.5%  
79 3% 98%  
80 7% 95%  
81 5% 88%  
82 13% 83%  
83 7% 71% Median
84 43% 64%  
85 5% 21%  
86 9% 16%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 0.5% 3%  
90 3% 3% Last Result, Majority
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result
77 3% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 97%  
79 3% 97%  
80 1.3% 94%  
81 10% 93%  
82 41% 82% Median
83 8% 41%  
84 19% 34%  
85 4% 15%  
86 2% 11%  
87 1.0% 9%  
88 5% 8%  
89 3% 3%  
90 0.1% 0.5% Majority
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 2% 100%  
75 0.4% 97%  
76 0.3% 97%  
77 3% 97% Last Result
78 9% 94%  
79 5% 84%  
80 2% 79%  
81 37% 77% Median
82 12% 40%  
83 3% 28%  
84 14% 25%  
85 4% 12%  
86 4% 8%  
87 4% 4%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.5%  
75 6% 98%  
76 3% 92%  
77 7% 88%  
78 14% 81%  
79 3% 67% Median
80 45% 64%  
81 2% 18%  
82 10% 16%  
83 1.1% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 3% 3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.5%  
75 6% 98%  
76 3% 92%  
77 7% 88%  
78 14% 81%  
79 3% 67% Median
80 46% 64%  
81 2% 18%  
82 10% 16%  
83 1.1% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 3% 3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 2% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 97%  
68 0.4% 97% Last Result
69 3% 97%  
70 9% 94%  
71 4% 84%  
72 41% 80% Median
73 6% 39%  
74 10% 33%  
75 10% 23%  
76 1.3% 13%  
77 5% 12%  
78 3% 7%  
79 4% 4%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
63 3% 99.5%  
64 37% 97%  
65 9% 59% Median
66 15% 51%  
67 9% 36%  
68 7% 27%  
69 7% 20%  
70 9% 13%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.7% 0.9%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.8% 99.8%  
54 0.8% 99.0%  
55 11% 98% Last Result
56 47% 87% Median
57 9% 40%  
58 8% 31%  
59 6% 23%  
60 8% 16%  
61 6% 8%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0% 1.1%  
64 1.0% 1.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.8%  
46 13% 98.9%  
47 10% 86%  
48 9% 76% Median
49 47% 67%  
50 2% 20%  
51 3% 19%  
52 5% 16%  
53 2% 10% Last Result
54 8% 8%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 5% 99.7%  
37 4% 94%  
38 49% 90% Median
39 14% 41%  
40 6% 28% Last Result
41 5% 22%  
42 12% 17%  
43 1.4% 5%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.8%  
30 6% 98.8%  
31 44% 93% Median
32 23% 49%  
33 3% 26%  
34 6% 23% Last Result
35 12% 17%  
36 2% 5%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations