Opinion Poll by Epinion for DR, 16–24 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 26.3% | 27.5% | 26.1–29.0% | 25.7–29.4% | 25.3–29.8% | 24.6–30.5% |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 21.1% | 18.6% | 17.4–19.9% | 17.0–20.3% | 16.7–20.6% | 16.2–21.3% |
| Venstre | 19.5% | 17.8% | 16.6–19.1% | 16.3–19.5% | 16.0–19.8% | 15.4–20.5% |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.2–10.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.8–10.7% | 7.4–11.2% |
| Radikale Venstre | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Liberal Alliance | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.2–5.6% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.4% |
| Alternativet | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1–5.5% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.4–6.2% |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.2% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.3–6.0% |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Nye Borgerlige | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.3–4.8% |
| Kristendemokraterne | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne | 47 | 49 | 46–50 | 44–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 |
| Dansk Folkeparti | 37 | 33 | 32–34 | 31–35 | 31–36 | 27–37 |
| Venstre | 34 | 31 | 29–33 | 29–33 | 29–34 | 27–35 |
| Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne | 14 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| Radikale Venstre | 8 | 8 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 |
| Liberal Alliance | 13 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Alternativet | 9 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Socialistisk Folkeparti | 7 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Det Konservative Folkeparti | 6 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Nye Borgerlige | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Kristendemokraterne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Socialdemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 4% | 94% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 47 | 19% | 90% | Last Result |
| 48 | 5% | 70% | |
| 49 | 38% | 65% | Median |
| 50 | 20% | 27% | |
| 51 | 3% | 7% | |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Dansk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 5% | 98% | |
| 32 | 29% | 93% | |
| 33 | 45% | 64% | Median |
| 34 | 9% | 19% | |
| 35 | 6% | 10% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 10% | 98% | |
| 30 | 4% | 88% | |
| 31 | 46% | 84% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 37% | |
| 33 | 17% | 22% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 27% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 15 | 13% | 72% | |
| 16 | 44% | 59% | Median |
| 17 | 9% | 15% | |
| 18 | 5% | 6% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Radikale Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 97% | |
| 8 | 50% | 94% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 23% | 44% | |
| 10 | 18% | 21% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 15% | 98% | |
| 8 | 24% | 83% | |
| 9 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 10 | 50% | 50% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Alternativet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 97% | |
| 8 | 65% | 92% | Median |
| 9 | 20% | 26% | Last Result |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistisk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 25% | 97% | Last Result |
| 8 | 50% | 72% | Median |
| 9 | 6% | 22% | |
| 10 | 16% | 17% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Det Konservative Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 6 | 46% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 7 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 34% | 43% | |
| 9 | 8% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Nye Borgerlige
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 98.6% | |
| 6 | 82% | 89% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 7% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Kristendemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 85 | 89 | 14% | 86–90 | 86–92 | 84–95 | 84–95 |
| Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne | 90 | 86 | 4% | 85–89 | 83–89 | 80–91 | 80–91 |
| Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige | 90 | 86 | 4% | 85–89 | 83–89 | 80–91 | 80–91 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 76 | 81 | 0% | 79–82 | 77–84 | 76–85 | 75–87 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 77 | 81 | 0% | 78–83 | 77–84 | 75–85 | 75–87 |
| Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne | 90 | 80 | 0% | 78–83 | 76–84 | 75–85 | 75–85 |
| Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 90 | 80 | 0% | 78–83 | 76–84 | 75–85 | 75–85 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 68 | 73 | 0% | 69–75 | 69–75 | 67–77 | 67–77 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti | 62 | 65 | 0% | 62–67 | 60–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 |
| Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre | 55 | 57 | 0% | 55–59 | 53–59 | 52–59 | 50–62 |
| Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 53 | 47 | 0% | 46–49 | 44–50 | 43–50 | 42–53 |
| Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti | 40 | 38 | 0% | 37–41 | 36–41 | 35–41 | 34–43 |
| Venstre | 34 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 29–33 | 29–34 | 27–35 |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 86 | 7% | 96% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 89% | |
| 88 | 8% | 87% | |
| 89 | 65% | 80% | Median |
| 90 | 6% | 14% | Majority |
| 91 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 92 | 3% | 8% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 95 | 2% | 3% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 83 | 3% | 96% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 85 | 6% | 91% | |
| 86 | 65% | 86% | Median |
| 87 | 8% | 20% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 89 | 7% | 11% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | Last Result, Majority |
| 91 | 3% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 83 | 3% | 96% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 85 | 6% | 91% | |
| 86 | 65% | 86% | Median |
| 87 | 8% | 20% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 89 | 7% | 11% | |
| 90 | 2% | 4% | Last Result, Majority |
| 91 | 3% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 76 | 3% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 77 | 3% | 96% | |
| 78 | 2% | 93% | |
| 79 | 5% | 91% | |
| 80 | 20% | 87% | |
| 81 | 53% | 67% | Median |
| 82 | 5% | 14% | |
| 83 | 3% | 8% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 75 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 77 | 2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 78 | 9% | 94% | |
| 79 | 13% | 85% | |
| 80 | 20% | 72% | |
| 81 | 38% | 52% | Median |
| 82 | 2% | 14% | |
| 83 | 6% | 12% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 87 | 2% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 78 | 5% | 94% | |
| 79 | 4% | 89% | |
| 80 | 65% | 85% | Median |
| 81 | 9% | 21% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 83 | 3% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 7% | |
| 85 | 4% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 97% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 78 | 5% | 94% | |
| 79 | 4% | 89% | |
| 80 | 65% | 85% | Median |
| 81 | 9% | 21% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 83 | 3% | 11% | |
| 84 | 3% | 7% | |
| 85 | 4% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result, Majority |
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 67 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 96% | Last Result |
| 69 | 8% | 95% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 71 | 24% | 87% | |
| 72 | 11% | 62% | |
| 73 | 39% | 51% | Median |
| 74 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 75 | 7% | 11% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 63 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 64 | 6% | 88% | |
| 65 | 43% | 82% | Median |
| 66 | 17% | 38% | |
| 67 | 13% | 21% | |
| 68 | 5% | 8% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 4% | 97% | |
| 54 | 2% | 93% | |
| 55 | 4% | 91% | Last Result |
| 56 | 4% | 87% | |
| 57 | 53% | 83% | Median |
| 58 | 10% | 30% | |
| 59 | 18% | 20% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 44 | 5% | 97% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 46 | 7% | 91% | |
| 47 | 40% | 84% | Median |
| 48 | 32% | 44% | |
| 49 | 6% | 12% | |
| 50 | 4% | 6% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 5% | 97% | |
| 37 | 38% | 91% | |
| 38 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 39 | 12% | 45% | |
| 40 | 16% | 33% | Last Result |
| 41 | 14% | 17% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 10% | 98% | |
| 30 | 4% | 88% | |
| 31 | 46% | 84% | Median |
| 32 | 15% | 37% | |
| 33 | 17% | 22% | |
| 34 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Epinion
- Commissioner(s): DR
- Fieldwork period: 16–24 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1538
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.59%