Opinion Poll by Epinion for DR, 7–15 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.5% 25.1–28.0% 24.7–28.4% 24.4–28.8% 23.7–29.5%
Venstre 19.5% 18.3% 17.1–19.6% 16.8–20.0% 16.5–20.3% 15.9–20.9%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 17.5% 16.3–18.8% 16.0–19.1% 15.7–19.4% 15.1–20.1%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 10.2% 9.3–11.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.8–11.8% 8.4–12.3%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 5.3% 4.6–6.1% 4.4–6.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.0–6.9%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.5%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.5%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.5%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 49 45–49 45–49 44–49 43–52
Venstre 34 32 32–33 31–34 30–34 28–36
Dansk Folkeparti 37 30 29–32 28–33 27–33 27–36
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 18 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Radikale Venstre 8 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 8–13
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 10 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Liberal Alliance 13 8 7–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Alternativet 9 7 7–8 7–8 6–9 6–9
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 6 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Nye Borgerlige 0 5 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–8
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.6%  
44 3% 98.8%  
45 8% 96%  
46 5% 88%  
47 15% 82% Last Result
48 4% 67%  
49 61% 63% Median
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.3% 1.0%  
52 0.3% 0.7%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 1.3% 99.5%  
30 1.3% 98%  
31 3% 97%  
32 65% 94% Median
33 19% 28%  
34 8% 10% Last Result
35 0.9% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 5% 99.8%  
28 3% 95%  
29 4% 93%  
30 63% 88% Median
31 15% 26%  
32 3% 10%  
33 6% 8%  
34 0.5% 2%  
35 0.4% 1.4%  
36 0.8% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
38 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100% Last Result
15 2% 99.8%  
16 5% 98%  
17 13% 93%  
18 67% 80% Median
19 8% 13%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100% Last Result
9 17% 98.9%  
10 70% 81% Median
11 4% 11%  
12 6% 7%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
8 10% 99.1%  
9 8% 90%  
10 78% 82% Median
11 4% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 5% 99.4%  
7 10% 95%  
8 80% 84% Median
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 4% 99.7%  
7 69% 96% Median
8 24% 27%  
9 3% 3% Last Result
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 65% 99.4% Last Result, Median
7 20% 34%  
8 13% 15%  
9 1.3% 1.5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 84% 99.5% Median
6 10% 15%  
7 4% 6%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 94 94% 90–94 89–95 88–95 86–96
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 87 0.4% 82–87 82–87 81–87 79–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 81 0.2% 81–85 80–86 80–87 79–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 90 81 0.2% 81–85 80–86 80–87 79–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 76 0% 76–79 75–80 75–81 73–83
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 76 0% 76–79 75–80 75–81 73–83
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 69 0% 65–69 63–69 63–69 61–71
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 59 0% 56–59 55–59 54–59 53–62
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 46 0% 46–48 45–50 43–51 42–51
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 38 0% 38–40 38–42 37–42 35–44
Venstre 34 32 0% 32–33 31–34 30–34 28–36

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Last Result
86 0.5% 99.8%  
87 0.6% 99.4%  
88 3% 98.8%  
89 1.5% 96%  
90 7% 94% Majority
91 14% 87%  
92 3% 73%  
93 5% 70%  
94 60% 65% Median
95 4% 6%  
96 0.7% 1.1%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 0.9% 99.3%  
81 2% 98%  
82 7% 96%  
83 12% 89%  
84 5% 77%  
85 4% 71%  
86 2% 67%  
87 63% 64% Median
88 1.2% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.3% 0.4% Majority
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.6%  
80 4% 98.9%  
81 60% 94% Median
82 5% 35%  
83 3% 30%  
84 14% 27%  
85 7% 13%  
86 1.5% 6%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.6% 1.2%  
89 0.5% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.6%  
80 4% 98.9%  
81 60% 94% Median
82 5% 35%  
83 3% 30%  
84 14% 27%  
85 7% 13%  
86 1.5% 6%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.6% 1.2%  
89 0.5% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 99.7%  
74 1.0% 98.7%  
75 4% 98%  
76 61% 93% Median
77 5% 32%  
78 5% 27%  
79 12% 22%  
80 5% 10%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.7% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 99.7%  
74 1.0% 98.7%  
75 4% 98%  
76 61% 93% Median
77 5% 32%  
78 5% 27%  
79 12% 22%  
80 5% 10%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.7% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 1.4% 99.4% Last Result
63 4% 98%  
64 4% 94%  
65 3% 91%  
66 14% 88%  
67 7% 73%  
68 4% 66%  
69 60% 62% Median
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.2%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.5%  
54 3% 99.2%  
55 6% 97% Last Result
56 16% 91%  
57 6% 76%  
58 6% 70%  
59 61% 63% Median
60 0.7% 2%  
61 0.7% 1.5%  
62 0.3% 0.8%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.2%  
44 0.9% 97%  
45 2% 97%  
46 62% 95% Median
47 8% 33%  
48 16% 24%  
49 2% 8%  
50 3% 6%  
51 3% 3%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1% Last Result
54 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.7%  
36 1.0% 99.4%  
37 2% 98%  
38 61% 97% Median
39 6% 35%  
40 19% 29% Last Result
41 1.5% 10%  
42 7% 9%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 1.0% 1.2%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 1.3% 99.5%  
30 1.3% 98%  
31 3% 97%  
32 65% 94% Median
33 19% 28%  
34 8% 10% Last Result
35 0.9% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations