Opinion Poll by YouGov, 7–9 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 25.0% 23.7–26.4% 23.3–26.8% 23.0–27.2% 22.4–27.9%
Venstre 19.5% 18.9% 17.7–20.2% 17.4–20.5% 17.1–20.9% 16.5–21.5%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 15.8% 14.7–17.0% 14.4–17.4% 14.1–17.7% 13.6–18.3%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.6% 7.8–9.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.3–10.1% 7.0–10.5%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 5.9% 5.2–6.7% 5.0–6.9% 4.9–7.1% 4.5–7.5%
Alternativet 4.8% 5.8% 5.1–6.6% 4.9–6.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.5–7.4%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 5.4% 4.8–6.2% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–7.0%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 5.3% 4.6–6.1% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.0–6.9%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.7% 4.1–5.4% 3.9–5.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.5–6.2%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 44 41–49 41–49 41–49 41–49
Venstre 34 34 30–35 29–35 29–36 29–38
Dansk Folkeparti 37 27 26–31 26–31 25–31 24–31
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 14 13–17 12–17 12–17 12–18
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Alternativet 9 10 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–12
Radikale Venstre 8 9 9–11 9–11 8–12 6–12
Nye Borgerlige 0 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 9 6–10 6–10 6–10 6–10
Liberal Alliance 13 7 6–9 5–9 5–9 5–9
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 36% 99.6%  
42 11% 64%  
43 2% 53%  
44 0.9% 51% Median
45 1.3% 50%  
46 9% 49%  
47 6% 40% Last Result
48 13% 34%  
49 21% 22%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 5% 99.7%  
30 21% 95%  
31 3% 74%  
32 2% 71%  
33 17% 69%  
34 37% 52% Last Result, Median
35 12% 15%  
36 1.2% 3%  
37 0.9% 2%  
38 0.6% 0.6%  
39 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.2% 100%  
25 3% 98.8%  
26 24% 96%  
27 22% 72% Median
28 8% 50%  
29 30% 41%  
30 1.1% 12%  
31 11% 11%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 7% 99.9%  
13 39% 93%  
14 4% 54% Last Result, Median
15 11% 50%  
16 23% 38%  
17 14% 16%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 1.4% 100%  
9 15% 98.6%  
10 44% 83% Median
11 6% 40%  
12 33% 34%  
13 0.9% 1.1%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 11% 100%  
9 32% 89% Last Result
10 28% 57% Median
11 4% 28%  
12 24% 24%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 0.8% 99.5%  
8 2% 98.7% Last Result
9 57% 97% Median
10 19% 40%  
11 17% 20%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.8% 100%  
8 29% 99.2%  
9 26% 70% Median
10 14% 44%  
11 29% 29%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 11% 99.9% Last Result
7 3% 89%  
8 33% 86%  
9 37% 52% Median
10 15% 15%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 34% 91%  
7 8% 58% Median
8 23% 50%  
9 26% 26%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet – Radikale Venstre 85 90 50% 86–92 86–94 86–94 86–95
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 85 0.4% 83–89 81–89 81–89 80–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 85 0.4% 83–89 81–89 81–89 80–89
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 81 0% 76–82 75–85 75–85 75–85
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 76 79 0% 77–82 77–82 77–84 75–85
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 76 0% 72–80 71–80 70–80 70–80
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 76 0% 72–80 71–80 70–80 70–80
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 70 0% 67–72 66–73 66–75 66–76
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 62 65 0% 60–69 60–69 60–69 60–69
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 55 0% 50–59 50–59 50–59 50–59
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 50 0% 45–51 44–51 44–51 43–53
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 42 0% 39–45 37–45 37–45 37–46
Venstre 34 34 0% 30–35 29–35 29–36 29–38

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
86 23% 99.6%  
87 23% 77% Median
88 2% 53%  
89 1.2% 51%  
90 1.0% 50% Majority
91 19% 49%  
92 21% 30%  
93 3% 9%  
94 5% 6%  
95 0.4% 0.6%  
96 0% 0.3%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.7%  
81 5% 99.4%  
82 3% 94%  
83 21% 91%  
84 19% 70%  
85 1.0% 51%  
86 1.2% 50% Median
87 2% 49%  
88 23% 47%  
89 23% 23%  
90 0.3% 0.4% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.7%  
81 5% 99.4%  
82 3% 94%  
83 21% 91%  
84 19% 70%  
85 1.0% 51%  
86 1.2% 50% Median
87 2% 49%  
88 23% 47%  
89 23% 23%  
90 0.3% 0.4% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 9% 99.9%  
76 7% 90%  
77 13% 84% Last Result
78 17% 70% Median
79 0.8% 53%  
80 2% 53%  
81 4% 51%  
82 39% 46%  
83 0.1% 8%  
84 2% 8%  
85 5% 6%  
86 0% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 1.2% 100%  
76 0.9% 98.8% Last Result
77 19% 98% Median
78 26% 79%  
79 21% 53%  
80 1.2% 32%  
81 2% 31%  
82 24% 29%  
83 1.4% 5%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.2% 1.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 3% 100%  
71 2% 97%  
72 19% 94%  
73 3% 76%  
74 3% 73%  
75 8% 69%  
76 13% 62%  
77 8% 49% Median
78 1.2% 41%  
79 10% 40%  
80 30% 30%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 3% 100%  
71 2% 97%  
72 19% 94%  
73 3% 76%  
74 3% 73%  
75 8% 69%  
76 13% 62%  
77 8% 49% Median
78 1.2% 41%  
79 10% 40%  
80 30% 30%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 8% 99.9%  
67 9% 92%  
68 13% 82% Last Result, Median
69 18% 69%  
70 22% 51%  
71 0.5% 29%  
72 20% 29%  
73 4% 8%  
74 0.1% 4%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.8% 0.9%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 13% 99.9%  
61 1.0% 87%  
62 19% 86% Last Result
63 9% 67% Median
64 7% 58%  
65 2% 51%  
66 17% 50%  
67 7% 32%  
68 5% 25%  
69 19% 20%  
70 0% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 29% 99.8%  
51 0.9% 71%  
52 8% 70%  
53 10% 62% Median
54 1.4% 52%  
55 12% 50% Last Result
56 4% 39%  
57 13% 35%  
58 3% 22%  
59 18% 19%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.9%  
44 6% 99.4%  
45 19% 93%  
46 1.2% 74%  
47 8% 73%  
48 13% 65%  
49 0.7% 52%  
50 13% 51% Median
51 36% 38%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 7% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 93%  
39 22% 92%  
40 10% 70% Last Result
41 2% 61%  
42 42% 58%  
43 0.2% 16% Median
44 1.4% 16%  
45 13% 15%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 5% 99.7%  
30 21% 95%  
31 3% 74%  
32 2% 71%  
33 17% 69%  
34 37% 52% Last Result, Median
35 12% 15%  
36 1.2% 3%  
37 0.9% 2%  
38 0.6% 0.6%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations