Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget and Jyllands-Posten, 6–11 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.6% 25.0–28.3% 24.6–28.7% 24.2–29.1% 23.4–29.9%
Venstre 19.5% 18.2% 16.9–19.7% 16.5–20.1% 16.1–20.5% 15.5–21.2%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 17.6% 16.3–19.1% 15.9–19.5% 15.6–19.9% 15.0–20.6%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.8% 7.8–9.9% 7.5–10.2% 7.3–10.5% 6.9–11.1%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 6.3% 5.5–7.3% 5.3–7.6% 5.1–7.8% 4.7–8.3%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 5.2% 4.4–6.1% 4.2–6.3% 4.1–6.6% 3.7–7.0%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 4.8% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.5–6.6%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.5% 3.8–5.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.5–5.8% 3.2–6.3%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.5% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.3%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 49 44–51 43–51 42–52 42–52
Venstre 34 32 30–36 29–36 27–36 27–37
Dansk Folkeparti 37 31 28–34 28–35 28–35 26–37
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 15 14–17 14–18 13–20 12–20
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 10 10–13 10–13 9–14 9–15
Liberal Alliance 13 9 7–11 7–11 6–11 6–12
Radikale Venstre 8 9 7–10 7–11 6–11 6–12
Alternativet 9 7 6–10 6–10 6–11 6–11
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Nye Borgerlige 0 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.8%  
43 3% 97%  
44 10% 94%  
45 5% 84%  
46 9% 79%  
47 6% 70% Last Result
48 5% 65%  
49 18% 60% Median
50 31% 42%  
51 8% 12%  
52 4% 4%  
53 0% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.6%  
28 1.1% 97%  
29 3% 95%  
30 17% 92%  
31 6% 75%  
32 29% 69% Median
33 6% 40%  
34 5% 34% Last Result
35 7% 29%  
36 20% 22%  
37 1.1% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.1%  
28 16% 98%  
29 2% 82%  
30 22% 80%  
31 32% 58% Median
32 8% 26%  
33 6% 18%  
34 6% 12%  
35 4% 7%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 1.3% 98%  
14 29% 97% Last Result
15 38% 68% Median
16 11% 30%  
17 13% 19%  
18 2% 7%  
19 2% 4%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 60% 95% Median
11 10% 35%  
12 13% 25%  
13 8% 12%  
14 3% 4%  
15 1.2% 1.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 11% 97%  
8 7% 85%  
9 53% 78% Median
10 14% 25%  
11 10% 11%  
12 0.5% 0.9%  
13 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 20% 96%  
8 8% 75% Last Result
9 29% 67% Median
10 32% 38%  
11 5% 6%  
12 1.4% 1.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 48% 99.8%  
7 7% 51% Median
8 13% 44%  
9 12% 31% Last Result
10 15% 19%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 6% 99.8%  
6 14% 94% Last Result
7 44% 80% Median
8 30% 37%  
9 4% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 9% 94%  
5 50% 85% Median
6 29% 36%  
7 5% 6%  
8 1.5% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 85 90 63% 86–95 86–96 86–97 84–98
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 85 1.5% 80–89 79–89 78–89 77–91
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige 90 85 1.5% 80–89 79–89 78–89 77–91
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 80 0.1% 77–86 77–87 77–88 76–88
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 76 84 0.1% 80–86 79–87 77–87 74–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 90 80 0.1% 74–84 74–84 73–84 71–85
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 90 80 0.1% 74–84 74–84 73–84 71–85
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 74 0% 71–77 70–78 69–78 68–79
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 62 68 0% 63–71 62–72 62–72 60–73
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 56 0% 53–60 51–61 51–61 50–61
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 53 49 0% 44–52 44–52 44–53 42–54
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 40 0% 36–43 36–43 34–43 34–46
Venstre 34 32 0% 30–36 29–36 27–36 27–37

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.9% 99.8%  
85 0.4% 98.9% Last Result
86 9% 98.5%  
87 19% 89%  
88 4% 70%  
89 3% 66%  
90 24% 63% Median, Majority
91 5% 38%  
92 6% 33%  
93 1.4% 27%  
94 5% 25%  
95 13% 20%  
96 3% 7%  
97 3% 5%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 2% 100%  
78 3% 98%  
79 3% 95%  
80 13% 93%  
81 5% 80%  
82 1.4% 75%  
83 6% 73%  
84 5% 67% Median
85 24% 62%  
86 3% 37%  
87 4% 34%  
88 19% 30%  
89 9% 11%  
90 0.4% 1.5% Last Result, Majority
91 0.9% 1.1%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 2% 100%  
78 3% 98%  
79 3% 95%  
80 13% 93%  
81 5% 80%  
82 1.4% 75%  
83 6% 73%  
84 5% 67% Median
85 24% 62%  
86 3% 37%  
87 4% 34%  
88 19% 30%  
89 9% 11%  
90 0.4% 1.5% Last Result, Majority
91 0.9% 1.1%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.7%  
77 10% 99.1% Last Result
78 2% 89%  
79 3% 87%  
80 41% 84%  
81 3% 43% Median
82 7% 40%  
83 6% 33%  
84 4% 28%  
85 4% 23%  
86 12% 20%  
87 4% 8%  
88 3% 3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.8% 100%  
75 0% 99.2%  
76 0.2% 99.2% Last Result
77 2% 99.0%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 95%  
80 10% 92%  
81 21% 82%  
82 3% 62%  
83 4% 58% Median
84 29% 54%  
85 9% 25%  
86 8% 16%  
87 6% 8%  
88 0.5% 2%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.5% 100%  
72 0% 98.5%  
73 3% 98%  
74 5% 95%  
75 7% 90%  
76 2% 82%  
77 5% 80%  
78 1.2% 76%  
79 8% 74% Median
80 31% 66%  
81 0.7% 35%  
82 23% 34%  
83 1.1% 12%  
84 9% 11%  
85 0.8% 1.2%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.5% 100%  
72 0% 98.5%  
73 3% 98%  
74 5% 95%  
75 7% 90%  
76 2% 82%  
77 5% 80%  
78 1.2% 76%  
79 8% 74% Median
80 31% 66%  
81 0.7% 35%  
82 23% 34%  
83 1.1% 12%  
84 9% 11%  
85 0.8% 1.2%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
69 1.4% 98.7%  
70 5% 97%  
71 11% 92%  
72 5% 81%  
73 2% 76%  
74 40% 74% Median
75 5% 34%  
76 15% 29%  
77 5% 14%  
78 8% 9%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.8%  
61 1.0% 99.2%  
62 3% 98% Last Result
63 6% 95%  
64 4% 88%  
65 4% 84%  
66 19% 80%  
67 11% 61%  
68 7% 51% Median
69 1.4% 44%  
70 30% 43%  
71 4% 12%  
72 6% 8%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.7%  
50 0.9% 99.6%  
51 5% 98.7%  
52 2% 94%  
53 9% 92%  
54 3% 83%  
55 5% 79% Last Result
56 30% 74%  
57 2% 44%  
58 0.4% 42% Median
59 4% 41%  
60 29% 37%  
61 8% 9%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.9% 100%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 10% 98%  
45 7% 88%  
46 11% 80%  
47 3% 69%  
48 2% 67% Median
49 27% 64%  
50 3% 37%  
51 5% 34%  
52 26% 29%  
53 2% 3% Last Result
54 1.0% 1.3%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 4% 99.7%  
35 0.5% 96%  
36 7% 95%  
37 12% 88%  
38 10% 76%  
39 4% 65% Median
40 26% 62% Last Result
41 4% 36%  
42 11% 32%  
43 19% 21%  
44 0.5% 2%  
45 0.1% 1.2%  
46 1.1% 1.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.6%  
28 1.1% 97%  
29 3% 95%  
30 17% 92%  
31 6% 75%  
32 29% 69% Median
33 6% 40%  
34 5% 34% Last Result
35 7% 29%  
36 20% 22%  
37 1.1% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations