Opinion Poll by Kantar Gallup for Berlingske, 13 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.4% 25.0–27.8% 24.6–28.2% 24.3–28.6% 23.6–29.3%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 18.3% 17.1–19.6% 16.8–20.0% 16.5–20.3% 15.9–20.9%
Venstre 19.5% 18.3% 17.1–19.6% 16.8–20.0% 16.5–20.3% 15.9–20.9%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.4% 7.6–9.4% 7.3–9.6% 7.1–9.9% 6.8–10.4%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 6.7% 5.9–7.5% 5.7–7.8% 5.5–8.0% 5.2–8.4%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 5.6% 4.9–6.4% 4.7–6.6% 4.6–6.9% 4.3–7.3%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 5.4% 4.8–6.2% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–7.1%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.9% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.5%
Alternativet 4.8% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 49 44–51 44–51 44–51 42–51
Dansk Folkeparti 37 31 30–37 30–37 30–37 28–39
Venstre 34 34 31–35 31–35 30–36 29–38
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 16 13–17 13–17 12–17 12–19
Radikale Venstre 8 11 11–14 11–14 10–14 9–16
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 10 8–12 8–12 7–12 7–13
Liberal Alliance 13 9 8–12 7–12 7–13 7–13
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 6–12
Alternativet 9 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Nye Borgerlige 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 0.8% 99.2%  
44 9% 98%  
45 2% 89%  
46 7% 87%  
47 6% 81% Last Result
48 14% 75%  
49 49% 61% Median
50 0.9% 12%  
51 11% 11%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.9%  
29 1.4% 99.2%  
30 44% 98%  
31 5% 54% Median
32 14% 48%  
33 9% 35%  
34 11% 25%  
35 3% 14%  
36 0.9% 11%  
37 9% 10% Last Result
38 0.7% 1.3%  
39 0.6% 0.6%  
40 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.8%  
30 1.5% 98.8%  
31 11% 97%  
32 17% 87%  
33 7% 70%  
34 48% 63% Last Result, Median
35 11% 15%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.2% 1.0%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 12% 97%  
14 12% 85% Last Result
15 21% 73%  
16 5% 52% Median
17 45% 47%  
18 0.8% 2%  
19 1.1% 1.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100% Last Result
9 0.8% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.1%  
11 59% 96% Median
12 13% 37%  
13 13% 24%  
14 9% 11%  
15 0.9% 2%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100% Last Result
8 11% 97%  
9 5% 86%  
10 61% 82% Median
11 9% 21%  
12 11% 12%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 11% 95%  
9 63% 84% Median
10 5% 21%  
11 4% 16%  
12 9% 11%  
13 3% 3% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100% Last Result
7 3% 98%  
8 25% 96%  
9 53% 70% Median
10 14% 18%  
11 2% 4%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 25% 98%  
6 51% 74% Median
7 16% 23%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 93 80% 85–94 84–95 84–95 84–95
Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 82 11% 81–90 80–91 80–91 80–91
Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 90 82 11% 81–90 80–91 80–91 80–91
Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige 90 82 11% 81–90 80–91 80–91 80–91
Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 90 82 11% 81–90 80–91 80–91 80–91
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 87 0.1% 79–87 79–87 79–87 79–89
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 82 0% 73–83 72–83 72–83 72–83
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 76 0% 68–76 67–76 67–76 66–77
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 70 0% 64–74 64–74 64–74 64–76
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 60 0% 56–62 56–62 56–62 54–65
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 53 52 0% 48–57 47–57 47–57 47–58
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 43 0% 39–45 39–45 39–46 37–46
Venstre 34 34 0% 31–35 31–35 30–36 29–38

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 10% 100%  
85 1.2% 90% Last Result
86 2% 89%  
87 4% 86%  
88 0.4% 82%  
89 2% 82%  
90 3% 80% Majority
91 10% 77%  
92 2% 67% Median
93 48% 65%  
94 12% 17%  
95 5% 5%  
96 0.3% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 5% 99.7%  
81 12% 95%  
82 48% 83%  
83 2% 35% Median
84 10% 33%  
85 3% 23%  
86 2% 20%  
87 0.4% 18%  
88 4% 18%  
89 2% 14%  
90 1.2% 11% Last Result, Majority
91 10% 10%  
92 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 5% 99.6%  
81 12% 94%  
82 48% 82%  
83 2% 34% Median
84 11% 32%  
85 3% 21%  
86 2% 19%  
87 0.3% 17%  
88 4% 17%  
89 2% 13%  
90 1.2% 11% Last Result, Majority
91 10% 10%  
92 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 5% 99.7%  
81 12% 95%  
82 48% 83%  
83 2% 35% Median
84 10% 33%  
85 3% 23%  
86 2% 20%  
87 0.4% 18%  
88 4% 18%  
89 2% 14%  
90 1.2% 11% Last Result, Majority
91 10% 10%  
92 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 5% 99.6%  
81 12% 94%  
82 48% 82%  
83 2% 34% Median
84 11% 32%  
85 3% 21%  
86 2% 19%  
87 0.3% 17%  
88 4% 17%  
89 2% 13%  
90 1.2% 11% Last Result, Majority
91 10% 10%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 100%  
79 10% 99.7%  
80 4% 89%  
81 3% 85%  
82 1.0% 82%  
83 1.1% 81%  
84 2% 80%  
85 3% 79%  
86 10% 75% Median
87 63% 65%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.9% 1.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 9% 99.9%  
73 3% 91%  
74 2% 89%  
75 0.8% 87%  
76 4% 86%  
77 9% 82% Last Result
78 5% 73%  
79 1.3% 68%  
80 6% 66%  
81 2% 61% Median
82 48% 58%  
83 10% 11%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.7% 99.8%  
67 8% 99.1%  
68 3% 91% Last Result
69 5% 88%  
70 0.5% 83%  
71 1.1% 82%  
72 10% 81%  
73 5% 71%  
74 11% 66%  
75 1.5% 55% Median
76 53% 54%  
77 0.6% 0.7%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 12% 99.8%  
65 3% 88%  
66 2% 85%  
67 2% 83%  
68 2% 81%  
69 3% 79%  
70 43% 77% Median
71 3% 34%  
72 18% 30%  
73 1.0% 13%  
74 11% 12%  
75 0.1% 0.7%  
76 0.5% 0.5%  
77 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.8%  
55 1.2% 99.2% Last Result
56 9% 98%  
57 7% 88%  
58 3% 82%  
59 1.5% 79%  
60 44% 77% Median
61 8% 33%  
62 22% 25%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.8% 1.4%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 9% 99.7%  
48 2% 90%  
49 20% 89%  
50 1.5% 69%  
51 3% 68%  
52 46% 65% Median
53 3% 19% Last Result
54 0.9% 16%  
55 4% 15%  
56 0.5% 11%  
57 10% 11%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.3%  
39 8% 98%  
40 18% 89% Last Result
41 2% 72%  
42 8% 69%  
43 45% 62% Median
44 3% 16%  
45 10% 14%  
46 4% 4%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.3%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.8%  
30 1.5% 98.8%  
31 11% 97%  
32 17% 87%  
33 7% 70%  
34 48% 63% Last Result, Median
35 11% 15%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.2% 1.0%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations