Opinion Poll by Voxmeter for Ritzau, 10–16 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 26.3% 24.6–28.1% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.9–30.0%
Venstre 19.5% 18.6% 17.1–20.3% 16.7–20.7% 16.4–21.1% 15.7–21.9%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 18.4% 16.9–20.1% 16.5–20.5% 16.2–20.9% 15.5–21.7%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.4%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.4%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Alternativet 4.8% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 47 44–48 43–49 43–49 40–53
Venstre 34 34 32–37 32–37 32–37 29–38
Dansk Folkeparti 37 33 30–35 29–35 29–35 28–37
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 16 14–17 14–17 13–19 12–20
Radikale Venstre 8 13 12–14 11–14 11–14 10–16
Liberal Alliance 13 9 9–11 9–11 8–11 7–12
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 8 8–11 8–12 8–12 6–12
Alternativet 9 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 4–9
Nye Borgerlige 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.3%  
42 0.3% 98.6%  
43 7% 98%  
44 2% 92%  
45 8% 90%  
46 21% 82%  
47 48% 61% Last Result, Median
48 3% 12%  
49 7% 10%  
50 0.5% 2%  
51 0.3% 2%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 0.7% 99.3%  
31 0.8% 98.7%  
32 9% 98%  
33 22% 89%  
34 41% 67% Last Result, Median
35 2% 25%  
36 2% 23%  
37 19% 21%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 7% 99.1%  
30 4% 92%  
31 9% 88%  
32 25% 79%  
33 8% 54% Median
34 3% 46%  
35 41% 43%  
36 0.4% 2%  
37 1.1% 2% Last Result
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.2%  
14 8% 97% Last Result
15 34% 89%  
16 43% 55% Median
17 8% 12%  
18 2% 5%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100% Last Result
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 1.5% 99.8%  
11 5% 98%  
12 11% 93%  
13 66% 82% Median
14 14% 16%  
15 1.1% 2%  
16 0.5% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.6% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.4%  
9 51% 96% Median
10 23% 46%  
11 21% 23%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 2% 99.5% Last Result
8 65% 98% Median
9 10% 32%  
10 12% 22%  
11 2% 10%  
12 8% 8%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 3% 99.7%  
6 45% 97%  
7 33% 53% Median
8 17% 19%  
9 2% 3% Last Result
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.7% 100%  
5 3% 99.3%  
6 40% 96% Last Result
7 46% 56% Median
8 9% 10%  
9 1.2% 1.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0% 24%  
3 0% 24%  
4 24% 24%  
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 90 69% 89–95 88–95 87–96 84–97
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 84 1.4% 82–87 81–87 80–88 77–91
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 85 2% 80–86 80–87 79–88 78–91
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige 90 85 2% 80–86 80–87 79–88 78–91
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 90 85 0.4% 80–86 78–86 78–87 77–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 90 85 0.4% 80–86 78–86 78–87 77–89
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 68 0% 66–72 65–72 64–72 62–75
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 60 0% 57–61 57–63 55–63 52–65
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 53 50 0% 49–54 48–54 47–54 44–55
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 41 0% 39–43 38–43 38–43 36–45
Venstre 34 34 0% 32–37 32–37 32–37 29–38

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.6% 99.8%  
85 0.7% 99.2% Last Result
86 0.9% 98%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 25% 94%  
90 46% 69% Majority
91 2% 23% Median
92 1.4% 21%  
93 6% 19%  
94 2% 13%  
95 8% 11%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.7% 1.1%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.4%  
79 1.0% 98.7%  
80 2% 98%  
81 1.5% 96%  
82 25% 95%  
83 8% 70%  
84 41% 62% Median
85 7% 21%  
86 1.1% 14%  
87 10% 13%  
88 0.6% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.4% Majority
91 0.7% 0.8%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.7%  
79 2% 98.9%  
80 8% 97%  
81 2% 89%  
82 6% 87%  
83 1.4% 81% Median
84 2% 79%  
85 46% 77%  
86 25% 31%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.7% 2% Last Result, Majority
91 0.6% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.8% 99.7%  
79 2% 98.9%  
80 8% 97%  
81 2% 89%  
82 6% 87%  
83 1.5% 80% Median
84 2% 79%  
85 46% 77%  
86 25% 31%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.7% 2% Last Result, Majority
91 0.6% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 6% 99.0%  
79 2% 93%  
80 9% 91%  
81 7% 81%  
82 7% 74%  
83 2% 67% Median
84 2% 65%  
85 41% 62%  
86 19% 22%  
87 1.2% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.4% 0.4% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 6% 99.0%  
79 2% 93%  
80 9% 91%  
81 7% 81%  
82 7% 74%  
83 3% 67% Median
84 2% 64%  
85 41% 62%  
86 19% 22%  
87 1.2% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.4% 0.4% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
63 1.1% 99.0%  
64 2% 98%  
65 1.4% 96%  
66 6% 95%  
67 25% 89%  
68 43% 63% Median
69 1.3% 21%  
70 2% 19%  
71 7% 17%  
72 8% 10%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.4%  
75 0.7% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.6% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.3%  
54 1.1% 99.1%  
55 1.2% 98% Last Result
56 1.2% 97%  
57 13% 96%  
58 3% 82%  
59 21% 79%  
60 48% 59% Median
61 2% 11%  
62 1.3% 9%  
63 6% 8%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 1.1% 1.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.5%  
46 0.9% 99.3%  
47 1.1% 98%  
48 6% 97%  
49 18% 91%  
50 47% 73% Median
51 1.3% 26%  
52 1.4% 25%  
53 3% 23% Last Result
54 19% 20%  
55 0.2% 0.6%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.6%  
37 1.3% 99.2%  
38 6% 98%  
39 15% 91%  
40 4% 77% Last Result
41 48% 72% Median
42 3% 25%  
43 20% 22%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.7% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 0.7% 99.3%  
31 0.8% 98.7%  
32 9% 98%  
33 22% 89%  
34 41% 67% Last Result, Median
35 2% 25%  
36 2% 23%  
37 19% 21%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations