Opinion Poll by YouGov, 11–14 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 23.8% 22.6–25.1% 22.2–25.4% 21.9–25.8% 21.4–26.4%
Venstre 19.5% 17.7% 16.6–18.9% 16.3–19.2% 16.0–19.5% 15.5–20.0%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 15.9% 14.9–17.0% 14.6–17.3% 14.3–17.6% 13.9–18.2%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 10.2% 9.4–11.2% 9.1–11.4% 8.9–11.7% 8.6–12.1%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 6.2% 5.5–7.0% 5.4–7.2% 5.2–7.4% 4.9–7.8%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 6.1% 5.5–6.9% 5.3–7.1% 5.1–7.3% 4.8–7.7%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 5.7% 5.1–6.4% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.5–7.2%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–5.9% 3.7–6.2%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.6% 4.0–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.6% 3.5–6.0%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 41 41–43 41–44 40–45 37–45
Venstre 34 31 29–35 29–35 29–35 29–35
Dansk Folkeparti 37 30 26–30 25–30 25–30 25–31
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 17 17–19 16–19 16–20 16–20
Radikale Venstre 8 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 12 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Nye Borgerlige 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 8–12
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 8 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–10
Liberal Alliance 13 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Alternativet 9 7 7–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.8% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.2%  
39 0.6% 99.1%  
40 3% 98.6%  
41 53% 96% Median
42 21% 43%  
43 14% 22%  
44 4% 8%  
45 4% 4%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 11% 99.6%  
30 3% 89%  
31 59% 86% Median
32 6% 27%  
33 2% 20%  
34 1.5% 19% Last Result
35 17% 17%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 5% 99.9%  
26 6% 95%  
27 7% 89%  
28 24% 82%  
29 6% 59%  
30 51% 52% Median
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100% Last Result
15 0.3% 100%  
16 5% 99.7%  
17 56% 94% Median
18 21% 38%  
19 14% 17%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 1.4% 100%  
10 27% 98.6%  
11 55% 72% Median
12 15% 17%  
13 1.5% 2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.2% 100%  
9 22% 99.8%  
10 14% 77%  
11 5% 63%  
12 57% 58% Median
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 100%  
9 16% 98.9%  
10 60% 83% Median
11 21% 23%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 3% 100%  
8 75% 97% Median
9 11% 22%  
10 12% 12%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 19% 99.2%  
8 64% 80% Median
9 10% 16%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 6% 99.4%  
7 82% 94% Median
8 8% 12%  
9 4% 4% Last Result
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 88 19% 86–91 86–91 86–91 85–92
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 87 0.9% 84–89 84–89 84–89 83–90
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 87 0.9% 84–89 84–89 84–89 83–90
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 81 0% 79–83 79–84 79–84 79–85
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 77 0% 76–79 76–81 74–81 74–81
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 77 0% 74–78 74–78 73–78 72–81
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 77 0% 74–78 74–78 73–78 72–81
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 70 0% 69–72 69–73 68–74 67–74
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 64 0% 61–65 61–66 61–67 59–68
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 52 0% 52–55 52–55 51–55 48–55
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 47 0% 46–50 46–50 46–51 45–52
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 39 0% 38–43 37–43 37–43 36–44
Venstre 34 31 0% 29–35 29–35 29–35 29–35

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
86 18% 99.1%  
87 0.5% 81%  
88 54% 80% Median
89 7% 26%  
90 4% 19% Majority
91 13% 15%  
92 2% 2%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 2% 99.6%  
84 13% 98%  
85 4% 85%  
86 7% 81%  
87 54% 74% Median
88 0.5% 20%  
89 18% 19%  
90 0.8% 0.9% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 2% 99.6%  
84 13% 98%  
85 4% 85%  
86 7% 81%  
87 54% 74% Median
88 0.5% 20%  
89 18% 19%  
90 0.8% 0.9% Last Result, Majority
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Last Result
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 19% 99.8%  
80 1.4% 81%  
81 55% 80% Median
82 5% 25%  
83 13% 19%  
84 5% 7%  
85 1.1% 1.4%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.6%  
75 0.8% 97%  
76 17% 96%  
77 55% 79% Last Result, Median
78 5% 25%  
79 11% 20%  
80 3% 9%  
81 6% 6%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.1%  
74 8% 97%  
75 10% 90%  
76 0.8% 80%  
77 59% 79% Median
78 17% 19%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.1%  
74 8% 97%  
75 10% 90%  
76 0.8% 80%  
77 59% 79% Median
78 17% 19%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.6%  
68 1.3% 98% Last Result
69 17% 96%  
70 55% 80% Median
71 12% 24%  
72 4% 12%  
73 4% 9%  
74 5% 5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.8% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.1%  
61 17% 99.0%  
62 4% 82% Last Result
63 5% 78%  
64 57% 73% Median
65 9% 16%  
66 2% 7%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.8% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.1%  
50 0.1% 99.1%  
51 3% 99.0%  
52 73% 96% Median
53 0.7% 23%  
54 1.4% 22%  
55 20% 20% Last Result
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.8%  
46 11% 98.8%  
47 51% 88% Median
48 3% 37%  
49 6% 34%  
50 24% 28%  
51 1.3% 3%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
54 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.6% 100%  
37 8% 99.4%  
38 2% 91%  
39 54% 89% Median
40 6% 36% Last Result
41 6% 29%  
42 5% 23%  
43 17% 18%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 11% 99.6%  
30 3% 89%  
31 59% 86% Median
32 6% 27%  
33 2% 20%  
34 1.5% 19% Last Result
35 17% 17%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations