Opinion Poll by Epinion for DR, 14–21 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 27.9% 26.6–29.3% 26.2–29.7% 25.8–30.1% 25.2–30.8%
Venstre 19.5% 17.5% 16.4–18.7% 16.0–19.0% 15.8–19.3% 15.2–19.9%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 16.6% 15.5–17.8% 15.2–18.2% 14.9–18.4% 14.4–19.0%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.8%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.8% 5.6–8.0% 5.3–8.4%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 6.2% 5.5–7.0% 5.3–7.2% 5.2–7.4% 4.8–7.8%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 4.6% 4.0–5.3% 3.8–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.4–6.0%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.3–5.2% 3.0–5.5%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.8% 2.4–3.4% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.7% 1.9–4.0%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 49 47–51 45–51 45–52 44–54
Venstre 34 31 29–33 29–33 28–33 27–35
Dansk Folkeparti 37 29 27–32 27–32 27–32 26–33
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 16 13–17 13–18 13–18 13–19
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 11 11–14 10–14 9–14 9–15
Radikale Venstre 8 12 10–12 10–12 9–12 8–13
Liberal Alliance 13 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Alternativet 9 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–9
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Nye Borgerlige 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 2% 99.9%  
45 4% 98%  
46 2% 94%  
47 5% 91% Last Result
48 25% 86%  
49 38% 62% Median
50 4% 24%  
51 16% 20%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.8%  
28 2% 98.7%  
29 36% 97%  
30 3% 61%  
31 21% 57% Median
32 17% 36%  
33 18% 20%  
34 0.7% 2% Last Result
35 1.0% 1.3%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 1.4% 99.6%  
27 24% 98%  
28 14% 74%  
29 35% 60% Median
30 9% 25%  
31 2% 16%  
32 13% 14%  
33 1.1% 1.3%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 12% 99.8%  
14 6% 88% Last Result
15 19% 81%  
16 25% 63% Median
17 31% 38%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 5% 100%  
10 3% 95%  
11 50% 93% Median
12 7% 43%  
13 25% 36%  
14 10% 11%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.1% 100% Last Result
9 3% 98.9%  
10 9% 96%  
11 34% 87%  
12 52% 53% Median
13 0.7% 1.2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.4% 100%  
7 41% 98.6%  
8 26% 57% Median
9 27% 31%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 24% 99.5%  
7 19% 75%  
8 29% 56% Median
9 27% 27% Last Result
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 9% 99.1% Last Result
7 65% 90% Median
8 20% 25%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 20% 99.6%  
5 64% 80% Median
6 15% 16%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 85 96 99.7% 91–98 90–98 90–98 90–100
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 76 89 26% 83–91 83–92 82–92 82–92
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 84 0.2% 80–86 80–86 79–88 79–89
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 79 0% 77–84 77–85 77–85 75–85
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige 90 79 0% 77–84 77–85 77–85 75–85
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne 90 74 0% 72–80 72–80 72–80 70–81
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 90 74 0% 72–80 72–80 72–80 70–81
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 77 0% 72–80 72–80 72–80 71–81
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 62 72 0% 69–74 66–77 66–77 66–77
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 61 0% 58–63 55–63 55–63 55–65
Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti 53 46 0% 43–48 43–49 43–49 42–51
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 38 0% 36–41 36–41 35–41 34–42
Venstre 34 31 0% 29–33 29–33 28–33 27–35

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 6% 99.7% Majority
91 12% 94%  
92 2% 82%  
93 6% 80%  
94 6% 74%  
95 13% 68%  
96 11% 55% Median
97 11% 43%  
98 31% 33%  
99 1.3% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 100%  
82 4% 99.8%  
83 13% 96%  
84 0.8% 83%  
85 3% 82%  
86 5% 79%  
87 12% 75%  
88 10% 63% Median
89 26% 52%  
90 15% 26% Majority
91 5% 12%  
92 6% 6%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 2% 99.8%  
80 15% 97%  
81 1.2% 82%  
82 8% 81%  
83 8% 73%  
84 18% 64% Median
85 4% 47%  
86 39% 43%  
87 2% 4%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.2% Majority
91 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 1.3% 99.5%  
77 31% 98%  
78 11% 67%  
79 11% 57%  
80 13% 45% Median
81 6% 32%  
82 6% 26%  
83 2% 20%  
84 12% 18%  
85 6% 6%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 1.3% 99.5%  
77 31% 98%  
78 11% 67%  
79 11% 57%  
80 13% 45% Median
81 6% 32%  
82 6% 26%  
83 2% 20%  
84 12% 18%  
85 6% 6%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.8% 99.5%  
72 31% 98.7%  
73 7% 68%  
74 14% 61%  
75 20% 46% Median
76 2% 27%  
77 6% 25%  
78 2% 19%  
79 6% 18%  
80 12% 12%  
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.8% 99.5%  
72 31% 98.7%  
73 7% 68%  
74 14% 61%  
75 20% 46% Median
76 2% 27%  
77 6% 25%  
78 2% 19%  
79 6% 18%  
80 12% 12%  
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.9%  
72 17% 99.2%  
73 0.8% 82%  
74 2% 82%  
75 4% 80%  
76 20% 76% Median
77 26% 56%  
78 12% 29%  
79 6% 18%  
80 11% 12%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 5% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 95%  
68 0.9% 94%  
69 5% 93%  
70 14% 88%  
71 5% 74%  
72 36% 69% Median
73 6% 34%  
74 19% 27%  
75 1.5% 8%  
76 0.6% 7%  
77 6% 6%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 6% 99.8% Last Result
56 1.2% 94%  
57 2% 93%  
58 7% 91%  
59 20% 84%  
60 8% 64%  
61 36% 56% Median
62 7% 20%  
63 11% 13%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Venstre – Liberal Alliance – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.2% 99.7%  
43 26% 98.5%  
44 9% 72%  
45 2% 63%  
46 11% 61% Median
47 18% 50%  
48 24% 32%  
49 7% 8%  
50 0.2% 1.0%  
51 0.6% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.4% 99.7%  
35 1.3% 98%  
36 35% 97%  
37 8% 62%  
38 6% 54% Median
39 24% 48%  
40 13% 24% Last Result
41 9% 11%  
42 0.8% 1.2%  
43 0.4% 0.4%  
44 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.8%  
28 2% 98.7%  
29 36% 97%  
30 3% 61%  
31 21% 57% Median
32 17% 36%  
33 18% 20%  
34 0.7% 2% Last Result
35 1.0% 1.3%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations