Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget and Jyllands-Posten, 21–26 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 28.7% 27.1–30.5% 26.6–30.9% 26.2–31.4% 25.5–32.2%
Venstre 19.5% 16.9% 15.5–18.3% 15.2–18.7% 14.8–19.1% 14.2–19.8%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 14.4% 13.1–15.7% 12.8–16.1% 12.5–16.5% 11.9–17.1%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 8.9% 7.9–10.0% 7.6–10.3% 7.4–10.6% 7.0–11.2%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 6.2% 5.4–7.2% 5.2–7.5% 5.0–7.7% 4.6–8.2%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.2%
Alternativet 4.8% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.4% 3.3–5.6% 3.0–6.1%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.1–5.3% 2.8–5.8%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 3.2% 2.7–4.0% 2.5–4.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.1–4.8%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.4–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 50 49–54 48–54 48–54 47–55
Venstre 34 30 28–31 28–32 28–32 26–35
Dansk Folkeparti 37 26 24–28 23–29 22–29 22–29
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 16 14–18 13–18 13–18 12–20
Radikale Venstre 8 13 12–14 11–14 11–15 10–15
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 11 10–13 10–13 9–14 8–14
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–11
Alternativet 9 8 7–9 7–10 6–11 6–11
Nye Borgerlige 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–10
Liberal Alliance 13 5 4–7 4–7 4–8 4–9
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0 0 0
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
48 5% 98.8%  
49 13% 94%  
50 31% 81% Median
51 7% 50%  
52 5% 43%  
53 5% 38%  
54 31% 33%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 12% 98%  
29 7% 86%  
30 43% 79% Median
31 32% 37%  
32 3% 5%  
33 0.8% 2%  
34 0.8% 1.4% Last Result
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 5% 97%  
24 33% 92%  
25 5% 59%  
26 4% 54% Median
27 39% 50%  
28 5% 11%  
29 6% 7%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 8% 99.3%  
14 6% 91% Last Result
15 5% 85%  
16 32% 80% Median
17 36% 48%  
18 11% 12%  
19 0.6% 1.4%  
20 0.7% 0.7%  
21 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 6% 98.8%  
12 40% 93%  
13 12% 53% Median
14 38% 41%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.7% 100%  
9 4% 99.2%  
10 40% 95%  
11 37% 55% Median
12 8% 18%  
13 8% 11%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9% Last Result
7 19% 97%  
8 38% 79% Median
9 37% 40%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 43% 96%  
8 40% 53% Median
9 5% 13% Last Result
10 5% 8%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 30% 95%  
7 49% 66% Median
8 11% 16%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 33% 99.7%  
5 33% 66% Median
6 17% 33%  
7 13% 16%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Klaus Riskær Pedersen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Klaus Riskær Pedersen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 85 99 100% 96–101 95–101 94–102 93–103
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 76 91 81% 87–93 87–94 86–95 85–96
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 86 4% 84–88 81–88 81–90 81–91
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen 90 76 0% 74–79 74–80 73–81 72–82
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Klaus Riskær Pedersen 90 76 0% 74–79 74–80 73–81 72–82
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 76 0% 74–79 74–80 73–81 72–82
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance 90 76 0% 74–79 74–80 73–81 72–82
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 78 0% 75–81 73–81 73–81 73–82
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 62 75 0% 72–76 72–79 72–80 70–81
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 69 0% 67–72 66–73 65–74 65–75
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 69 0% 67–72 66–73 65–74 65–75
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 64 0% 62–66 60–66 59–67 58–68
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 44 0% 42–44 41–46 41–47 39–49
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 38 0% 36–40 35–40 35–40 34–42
Venstre 34 30 0% 28–31 28–32 28–32 26–35

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100% Majority
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 2% 99.7%  
94 0.3% 98%  
95 6% 97%  
96 4% 91%  
97 3% 87%  
98 2% 84% Median
99 36% 82%  
100 34% 45%  
101 8% 11%  
102 3% 4%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.6% 99.7%  
86 3% 99.1%  
87 7% 96%  
88 4% 89%  
89 4% 85%  
90 2% 81% Median, Majority
91 32% 79%  
92 7% 47%  
93 33% 40%  
94 4% 7%  
95 3% 3%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 6% 99.6%  
82 2% 94%  
83 2% 92%  
84 3% 90%  
85 32% 87% Median
86 10% 54%  
87 2% 44%  
88 38% 42%  
89 1.0% 5%  
90 3% 4% Majority
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 3% 99.3%  
74 8% 96%  
75 34% 89%  
76 36% 55% Median
77 2% 18%  
78 3% 16%  
79 4% 13%  
80 6% 9%  
81 0.3% 3%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Klaus Riskær Pedersen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 3% 99.3%  
74 8% 96%  
75 34% 89%  
76 36% 55% Median
77 2% 18%  
78 3% 16%  
79 4% 13%  
80 6% 9%  
81 0.3% 3%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 3% 99.3%  
74 8% 96%  
75 34% 89%  
76 36% 55% Median
77 2% 18%  
78 3% 16%  
79 4% 13%  
80 6% 9%  
81 0.3% 3%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 3% 99.3%  
74 8% 96%  
75 34% 89%  
76 36% 55% Median
77 2% 18%  
78 3% 16%  
79 4% 13%  
80 6% 9%  
81 0.3% 3%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 6% 99.7%  
74 3% 94%  
75 4% 91%  
76 4% 87%  
77 32% 83% Median
78 2% 51%  
79 7% 49%  
80 2% 42%  
81 38% 40%  
82 0.8% 1.2%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 1.1% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 98.7%  
72 9% 98%  
73 6% 89%  
74 10% 83% Median
75 33% 73%  
76 31% 40%  
77 1.2% 9%  
78 2% 8%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 3% 99.6%  
66 4% 96%  
67 3% 92%  
68 38% 89%  
69 4% 51% Median
70 28% 47%  
71 8% 19%  
72 3% 11%  
73 5% 8%  
74 1.4% 3%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 3% 99.6%  
66 4% 96%  
67 3% 92%  
68 38% 89%  
69 4% 51% Median
70 28% 47%  
71 8% 19%  
72 3% 11%  
73 5% 8%  
74 1.4% 3%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 4% 97%  
61 1.0% 94%  
62 6% 93%  
63 12% 86% Median
64 34% 75%  
65 4% 41%  
66 33% 37%  
67 3% 4%  
68 1.5% 2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.2%  
41 8% 98.7%  
42 5% 91%  
43 33% 86% Median
44 45% 53%  
45 3% 8%  
46 3% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.3% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.7%  
35 7% 98.8%  
36 4% 92%  
37 13% 88%  
38 39% 75% Median
39 1.4% 36%  
40 32% 35% Last Result
41 2% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 12% 98%  
29 7% 86%  
30 43% 79% Median
31 32% 37%  
32 3% 5%  
33 0.8% 2%  
34 0.8% 1.4% Last Result
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations