Opinion Poll by Norstat for Altinget and Jyllands-Posten, 2–8 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 26.3% 28.3% 26.6–30.0% 26.2–30.5% 25.8–30.9% 25.0–31.7%
Venstre 19.5% 17.3% 16.0–18.8% 15.6–19.2% 15.3–19.6% 14.7–20.3%
Dansk Folkeparti 21.1% 12.8% 11.6–14.1% 11.3–14.4% 11.0–14.8% 10.5–15.4%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 7.8% 9.2% 8.2–10.3% 7.9–10.7% 7.7–11.0% 7.2–11.5%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 4.2% 6.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.5–8.4% 5.1–8.9%
Radikale Venstre 4.6% 6.3% 5.5–7.3% 5.2–7.6% 5.1–7.8% 4.7–8.3%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 3.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.4% 3.3–5.6% 3.0–6.1%
Alternativet 4.8% 3.8% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.6–5.5%
Liberal Alliance 7.5% 3.7% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.8% 2.8–5.0% 2.5–5.4%
Stram Kurs 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.3–5.1%
Nye Borgerlige 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.4%
Kristendemokraterne 0.8% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.5%
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 47 49 49–53 47–54 47–56 44–57
Venstre 34 32 29–32 28–32 28–34 27–34
Dansk Folkeparti 37 25 22–26 21–28 21–28 19–28
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 14 17 14–19 14–19 14–20 14–20
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–15
Radikale Venstre 8 11 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–14
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Alternativet 9 7 7–8 6–8 6–9 4–10
Liberal Alliance 13 7 6–8 6–8 4–8 4–10
Stram Kurs 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Nye Borgerlige 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–6 0–6
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4
Klaus Riskær Pedersen 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.4% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.6%  
45 0.5% 99.4%  
46 0.4% 99.0%  
47 4% 98.6% Last Result
48 4% 94%  
49 46% 91% Median
50 4% 45%  
51 4% 40%  
52 1.0% 36%  
53 29% 35%  
54 3% 6%  
55 0.2% 3%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.8%  
27 0.8% 99.7%  
28 6% 98.9%  
29 31% 93%  
30 5% 62%  
31 2% 57%  
32 51% 55% Median
33 2% 4%  
34 2% 3% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.8%  
20 0.5% 99.2%  
21 6% 98.7%  
22 5% 92%  
23 7% 87%  
24 3% 80%  
25 43% 77% Median
26 28% 35%  
27 0.6% 7%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 12% 99.8% Last Result
15 4% 88%  
16 31% 83%  
17 5% 52% Median
18 4% 47%  
19 40% 43%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.3% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.7%  
10 41% 99.2%  
11 8% 59%  
12 8% 50% Median
13 38% 42%  
14 2% 5%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.5%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100% Last Result
9 1.5% 99.8%  
10 30% 98%  
11 46% 68% Median
12 10% 22%  
13 8% 13%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9% Last Result
7 11% 95%  
8 52% 84% Median
9 31% 33%  
10 0.7% 1.0%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.3% 100%  
5 1.0% 98.7%  
6 7% 98%  
7 54% 91% Median
8 34% 37%  
9 1.4% 3% Last Result
10 1.4% 1.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 2% 97%  
6 41% 96%  
7 5% 54% Median
8 47% 50%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Stram Kurs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stram Kurs page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.5% 99.8%  
5 35% 99.3%  
6 53% 64% Median
7 6% 11%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 8% 15%  
5 3% 7%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Klaus Riskær Pedersen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Klaus Riskær Pedersen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 85 96 99.9% 95–100 95–102 94–102 92–103
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 76 89 45% 88–92 88–94 87–95 85–96
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 77 85 30% 83–90 83–90 82–90 80–92
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 68 78 0% 76–82 75–83 75–83 73–85
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Stram Kurs – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen 90 79 0% 75–80 73–80 73–81 72–83
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 62 74 0% 70–76 70–78 70–80 68–80
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen 90 73 0% 68–74 68–74 67–74 64–77
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Klaus Riskær Pedersen 90 73 0% 68–73 68–74 67–74 64–77
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne 90 73 0% 68–74 68–74 67–74 64–77
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige 90 73 0% 68–73 68–74 67–74 64–77
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 90 71 0% 68–73 64–74 63–74 62–75
Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 90 70 0% 65–73 64–74 63–74 62–75
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 55 61 0% 60–63 60–67 58–68 56–68
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 53 46 0% 43–48 42–48 41–49 39–52
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 40 39 0% 37–40 35–40 35–41 34–43
Venstre 34 32 0% 29–32 28–32 28–34 27–34

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0% 99.9% Majority
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.7% 99.6%  
93 1.2% 99.0%  
94 0.7% 98%  
95 11% 97%  
96 42% 86% Median
97 0.6% 44%  
98 3% 43%  
99 2% 40%  
100 29% 38%  
101 3% 9%  
102 5% 6%  
103 0.8% 1.0%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.9% 99.6%  
86 1.1% 98.7%  
87 0.9% 98%  
88 9% 97%  
89 42% 87% Median
90 1.3% 45% Majority
91 4% 44%  
92 32% 40%  
93 0.4% 9%  
94 4% 8%  
95 4% 5%  
96 0.4% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.5%  
81 0.6% 99.3%  
82 4% 98.6%  
83 8% 95%  
84 4% 88%  
85 42% 84% Median
86 0.3% 42%  
87 3% 42%  
88 4% 38%  
89 5% 35%  
90 28% 30% Majority
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.7% 0.8%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 0.2% 99.1%  
75 4% 98.9%  
76 8% 95%  
77 1.5% 87%  
78 42% 86% Median
79 3% 43%  
80 5% 40%  
81 2% 35%  
82 28% 33%  
83 3% 5%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Stram Kurs – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.8% 99.9%  
73 5% 99.0%  
74 3% 94%  
75 29% 91%  
76 2% 62%  
77 3% 60%  
78 0.6% 57% Median
79 42% 56%  
80 11% 14%  
81 0.7% 3%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.3% 100%  
68 1.2% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 98%  
70 41% 98%  
71 4% 57%  
72 1.0% 54% Median
73 0.9% 53%  
74 9% 52%  
75 6% 43%  
76 30% 37%  
77 0.7% 7%  
78 2% 7%  
79 0.5% 5%  
80 4% 4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne – Klaus Riskær Pedersen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.8% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.2%  
66 0.4% 99.0%  
67 3% 98.6%  
68 6% 96%  
69 2% 90%  
70 29% 87%  
71 0.9% 59%  
72 1.4% 58% Median
73 43% 56%  
74 11% 14%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.6% 0.8%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Klaus Riskær Pedersen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.8% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.1%  
66 1.0% 99.0%  
67 3% 98%  
68 6% 95%  
69 3% 89%  
70 33% 86%  
71 0.7% 54%  
72 2% 53% Median
73 42% 51%  
74 7% 9%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.8% 1.5%  
77 0.6% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.8% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.2%  
66 0.4% 99.0%  
67 3% 98.6%  
68 6% 96%  
69 2% 90%  
70 29% 87%  
71 0.9% 59%  
72 1.4% 58% Median
73 43% 56%  
74 11% 14%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.6% 0.8%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Nye Borgerlige

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.8% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.1%  
66 1.0% 99.0%  
67 3% 98%  
68 6% 95%  
69 3% 89%  
70 33% 86%  
71 0.7% 54%  
72 2% 53% Median
73 42% 51%  
74 7% 9%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.8% 1.5%  
77 0.6% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 3% 99.3%  
64 2% 97%  
65 0.2% 95%  
66 0.3% 94%  
67 0.3% 94%  
68 8% 94%  
69 6% 86%  
70 29% 79%  
71 1.0% 50%  
72 2% 49% Median
73 41% 48%  
74 7% 7%  
75 0.6% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 0.6% 99.8%  
63 3% 99.2%  
64 6% 97%  
65 1.2% 91%  
66 0.8% 89%  
67 0.6% 89%  
68 5% 88%  
69 5% 84%  
70 29% 78%  
71 0.6% 50%  
72 2% 49% Median
73 40% 48%  
74 6% 7%  
75 0.6% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 1.1% 99.4%  
58 0.9% 98%  
59 1.0% 97%  
60 44% 96% Median
61 11% 52%  
62 0.3% 42%  
63 33% 41%  
64 2% 9%  
65 0.6% 7%  
66 0.4% 6%  
67 2% 6%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.2%  
41 4% 99.2%  
42 4% 95%  
43 2% 91%  
44 30% 89%  
45 3% 60%  
46 8% 56%  
47 5% 48% Median
48 40% 43%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.1% 1.3%  
51 0.5% 1.2%  
52 0.6% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
54 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.8% 99.8%  
35 5% 99.0%  
36 3% 94%  
37 2% 91%  
38 31% 89%  
39 8% 58%  
40 47% 50% Last Result, Median
41 1.1% 3%  
42 0.3% 2%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.8%  
27 0.8% 99.7%  
28 6% 98.9%  
29 31% 93%  
30 5% 62%  
31 2% 57%  
32 51% 55% Median
33 2% 4%  
34 2% 3% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations