Opinion Poll by YouGov, 2–5 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 25.9% 32.3% 30.6–34.0% 30.2–34.5% 29.8–34.9% 29.0–35.8%
Venstre 23.4% 15.8% 14.5–17.1% 14.1–17.5% 13.8–17.9% 13.3–18.6%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6.6% 10.6% 9.5–11.8% 9.2–12.1% 9.0–12.4% 8.5–13.0%
Nye Borgerlige 2.4% 9.4% 8.4–10.5% 8.1–10.9% 7.9–11.1% 7.4–11.7%
Dansk Folkeparti 8.7% 6.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.5–8.3% 5.1–8.8%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 6.9% 6.6% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.3–8.1% 5.0–8.6%
Radikale Venstre 8.6% 6.5% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.8% 5.3–8.0% 4.9–8.5%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7.7% 5.6% 4.8–6.5% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.0% 4.1–7.5%
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Kristendemokraterne 1.7% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.7%
Veganerpartiet 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.8–2.7%
Alternativet 3.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%
Stram Kurs 1.8% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 48 58 57–61 56–61 56–63 54–64
Venstre 43 28 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–33
Det Konservative Folkeparti 12 21 18–23 17–23 17–23 16–23
Nye Borgerlige 4 17 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–22
Dansk Folkeparti 16 13 10–15 10–17 10–17 10–17
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 13 11 11–14 10–15 9–16 9–16
Radikale Venstre 16 11 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Socialistisk Folkeparti 14 10 9–13 9–13 8–13 8–13
Liberal Alliance 4 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–6
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Veganerpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Alternativet 5 0 0 0 0 0
Stram Kurs 0 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100% Last Result
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 1.1% 99.6%  
55 0.7% 98.5%  
56 6% 98%  
57 17% 92%  
58 27% 75% Median
59 5% 48%  
60 1.1% 43%  
61 38% 42%  
62 1.2% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.7%  
25 2% 98%  
26 9% 96%  
27 16% 87%  
28 21% 71% Median
29 31% 50%  
30 3% 19%  
31 9% 15%  
32 5% 6%  
33 1.2% 1.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 1.3% 99.7%  
17 4% 98%  
18 6% 94%  
19 18% 88%  
20 3% 71%  
21 43% 68% Median
22 9% 25%  
23 16% 16%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 10% 98.8%  
15 4% 89%  
16 23% 84%  
17 34% 62% Median
18 24% 28%  
19 2% 4%  
20 0.9% 2%  
21 0.4% 2%  
22 0.8% 1.1%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 33% 99.7%  
11 6% 67%  
12 7% 60%  
13 34% 53% Median
14 8% 19%  
15 2% 11%  
16 1.3% 9% Last Result
17 8% 8%  
18 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 3% 96%  
11 75% 93% Median
12 3% 18%  
13 4% 15% Last Result
14 3% 11%  
15 4% 7%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 7% 96%  
11 45% 89% Median
12 26% 45%  
13 12% 18%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.6% 0.9%  
16 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 3% 99.7%  
9 9% 97%  
10 59% 88% Median
11 15% 29%  
12 2% 13%  
13 11% 12%  
14 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 0% 84%  
4 17% 84% Last Result
5 47% 67% Median
6 20% 20%  
7 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 2% 6%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Veganerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Veganerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Stram Kurs

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stram Kurs page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 96 93 93% 90–95 89–96 89–96 88–100
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 91 93 93% 90–95 89–96 89–96 88–100
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 79 82 0.1% 80–85 79–86 78–86 75–87
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 79 82 0% 79–84 78–86 76–86 74–86
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet 80 82 0.1% 78–83 78–84 78–84 76–87
Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti 75 82 0.1% 78–83 78–84 78–84 76–87
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti 78 82 0.1% 78–84 77–84 75–84 75–87
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 64 70 0% 68–73 67–73 66–74 66–76
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 75 66 0% 63–68 62–68 60–70 57–70
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 75 65 0% 63–68 60–68 58–70 55–70
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 59 55 0% 50–55 48–56 46–58 43–59
Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti 55 50 0% 47–52 44–54 43–55 41–55
Venstre 43 28 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–33

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 6% 99.2%  
90 4% 93% Median, Majority
91 27% 89%  
92 4% 62%  
93 41% 58%  
94 3% 17%  
95 9% 15%  
96 3% 5% Last Result
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.1% 1.1%  
99 0.4% 0.9%  
100 0.4% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 6% 99.2%  
90 4% 93% Median, Majority
91 27% 89% Last Result
92 4% 62%  
93 41% 58%  
94 3% 17%  
95 9% 15%  
96 3% 5%  
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.1% 1.1%  
99 0.4% 0.9%  
100 0.4% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.7% 99.4%  
77 0.4% 98.7%  
78 1.1% 98%  
79 3% 97% Last Result
80 9% 94%  
81 3% 85%  
82 40% 81%  
83 4% 41%  
84 27% 37% Median
85 4% 10%  
86 6% 6%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1% Majority
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.6%  
74 0.2% 99.5%  
75 1.4% 99.4%  
76 0.9% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 3% 93% Last Result
80 8% 89%  
81 1.4% 81%  
82 40% 79%  
83 3% 39%  
84 27% 37% Median
85 4% 10%  
86 6% 6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 1.1% 99.6%  
77 0.2% 98%  
78 14% 98%  
79 21% 84% Median
80 0.6% 63% Last Result
81 3% 62%  
82 47% 59%  
83 7% 12%  
84 3% 5%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 0.9% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
76 1.1% 99.6%  
77 0.2% 98%  
78 14% 98%  
79 21% 84% Median
80 0.7% 63%  
81 3% 62%  
82 47% 59%  
83 7% 12%  
84 3% 5%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 0.9% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre – Socialistisk Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 3% 99.7%  
76 0.2% 96%  
77 4% 96%  
78 4% 93% Last Result
79 4% 89% Median
80 29% 85%  
81 0.8% 56%  
82 43% 56%  
83 2% 12%  
84 9% 11%  
85 0.3% 2%  
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1% Majority
91 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 4% 99.5%  
67 1.4% 95%  
68 5% 94%  
69 17% 89% Median
70 23% 71%  
71 4% 48%  
72 32% 44%  
73 8% 12%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.7% 1.2%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.4% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.6%  
57 0.3% 99.5%  
58 1.0% 99.2%  
59 0.8% 98%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 0.4% 96%  
62 2% 96%  
63 4% 94%  
64 6% 90%  
65 32% 84%  
66 17% 52%  
67 4% 35% Median
68 27% 31%  
69 0.3% 4%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.6% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.4%  
57 0.4% 99.2%  
58 2% 98.8%  
59 1.5% 97%  
60 1.2% 95%  
61 0.5% 94%  
62 2% 94%  
63 4% 92%  
64 7% 88%  
65 32% 81%  
66 17% 49%  
67 4% 32% Median
68 24% 28%  
69 0.1% 3%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0% Last Result

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0% 99.4%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 2% 98%  
47 0.5% 96%  
48 3% 96%  
49 1.2% 93%  
50 10% 92%  
51 8% 82%  
52 2% 74%  
53 18% 72%  
54 2% 54% Median
55 44% 52%  
56 4% 8%  
57 1.2% 5%  
58 1.2% 4%  
59 2% 2% Last Result
60 0% 0%  

Venstre – Det Konservative Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 1.2% 100%  
42 0.3% 98.8%  
43 1.4% 98%  
44 3% 97%  
45 1.2% 94%  
46 2% 93%  
47 24% 91%  
48 3% 67%  
49 5% 64% Median
50 47% 60%  
51 0.4% 12%  
52 5% 12%  
53 1.3% 7%  
54 2% 5%  
55 3% 3% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.7%  
25 2% 98%  
26 9% 96%  
27 16% 87%  
28 21% 71% Median
29 31% 50%  
30 3% 19%  
31 9% 15%  
32 5% 6%  
33 1.2% 1.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations