Opinion Poll by YouGov for B.T., 10–12 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Socialdemokraterne |
25.9% |
31.0% |
29.4–32.7% |
28.9–33.2% |
28.5–33.6% |
27.7–34.4% |
Det Konservative Folkeparti |
6.6% |
16.8% |
15.5–18.3% |
15.2–18.7% |
14.9–19.0% |
14.3–19.7% |
Venstre |
23.4% |
10.3% |
9.3–11.5% |
9.0–11.8% |
8.7–12.1% |
8.2–12.7% |
Nye Borgerlige |
2.4% |
9.8% |
8.8–11.0% |
8.5–11.3% |
8.3–11.6% |
7.8–12.1% |
Socialistisk Folkeparti |
7.7% |
7.9% |
7.0–9.0% |
6.8–9.3% |
6.5–9.5% |
6.1–10.1% |
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne |
6.9% |
7.4% |
6.5–8.4% |
6.2–8.7% |
6.0–8.9% |
5.6–9.4% |
Dansk Folkeparti |
8.7% |
7.1% |
6.3–8.1% |
6.0–8.4% |
5.8–8.7% |
5.4–9.2% |
Radikale Venstre |
8.6% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.1% |
3.1–5.3% |
2.8–5.7% |
Liberal Alliance |
2.3% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.9% |
1.6–3.0% |
1.5–3.2% |
1.3–3.5% |
Kristendemokraterne |
1.7% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.2% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.1–2.5% |
0.9–2.8% |
Veganerpartiet |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.7% |
0.8–1.8% |
0.7–2.0% |
0.6–2.2% |
Alternativet |
3.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Socialdemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
49 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
51 |
23% |
99.5% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
76% |
|
53 |
3% |
76% |
|
54 |
57% |
73% |
Median |
55 |
8% |
16% |
|
56 |
2% |
8% |
|
57 |
2% |
6% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
59 |
3% |
4% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
61 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
98% |
|
28 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
29 |
4% |
96% |
|
30 |
5% |
92% |
|
31 |
60% |
87% |
Median |
32 |
25% |
27% |
|
33 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
35 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
2% |
98% |
|
18 |
60% |
96% |
Median |
19 |
23% |
36% |
|
20 |
8% |
12% |
|
21 |
2% |
4% |
|
22 |
2% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nye Borgerlige
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
16 |
54% |
97% |
Median |
17 |
4% |
42% |
|
18 |
28% |
38% |
|
19 |
4% |
10% |
|
20 |
4% |
6% |
|
21 |
2% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistisk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
5% |
97% |
|
14 |
26% |
92% |
Last Result |
15 |
58% |
66% |
Median |
16 |
6% |
8% |
|
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
4% |
98% |
|
13 |
10% |
94% |
Last Result |
14 |
81% |
85% |
Median |
15 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Dansk Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
10 |
7% |
99.5% |
|
11 |
3% |
93% |
|
12 |
5% |
90% |
|
13 |
3% |
85% |
|
14 |
79% |
82% |
Median |
15 |
3% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Radikale Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
10% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
1.4% |
89% |
|
8 |
8% |
88% |
|
9 |
78% |
80% |
Median |
10 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Alliance
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
95% |
|
2 |
0% |
95% |
|
3 |
0% |
95% |
|
4 |
84% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
9% |
11% |
|
6 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristendemokraterne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
8% |
|
2 |
0% |
8% |
|
3 |
0% |
8% |
|
4 |
6% |
8% |
|
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Veganerpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Veganerpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.4% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
4 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternativet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet |
96 |
92 |
68% |
88–92 |
88–93 |
87–94 |
85–96 |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre |
91 |
92 |
68% |
88–92 |
88–93 |
87–94 |
85–96 |
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne |
79 |
83 |
0.6% |
83–87 |
82–87 |
80–88 |
79–90 |
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance |
79 |
83 |
0.3% |
82–87 |
81–87 |
80–87 |
79–88 |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet |
80 |
83 |
0.2% |
79–84 |
79–85 |
79–87 |
77–88 |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne |
75 |
83 |
0.2% |
79–84 |
79–85 |
79–87 |
77–88 |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre |
78 |
78 |
0% |
74–78 |
74–80 |
74–81 |
72–83 |
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne |
75 |
67 |
0% |
65–69 |
64–69 |
63–70 |
62–73 |
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance |
75 |
67 |
0% |
65–69 |
63–69 |
62–69 |
59–71 |
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre |
64 |
63 |
0% |
60–63 |
60–66 |
60–67 |
58–67 |
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance |
59 |
53 |
0% |
53–55 |
51–55 |
49–55 |
47–56 |
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre |
55 |
49 |
0% |
48–51 |
48–51 |
46–51 |
44–54 |
Venstre |
43 |
18 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–20 |
17–22 |
16–22 |
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
82 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
85 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
86 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
87 |
2% |
98% |
|
88 |
25% |
96% |
|
89 |
3% |
71% |
|
90 |
3% |
68% |
Majority |
91 |
2% |
65% |
|
92 |
57% |
62% |
Median |
93 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
94 |
2% |
4% |
|
95 |
2% |
2% |
|
96 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
97 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
98 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
82 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
85 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
86 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
87 |
2% |
98% |
|
88 |
25% |
96% |
|
89 |
3% |
71% |
|
90 |
3% |
68% |
Majority |
91 |
2% |
65% |
Last Result |
92 |
57% |
62% |
Median |
93 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
94 |
2% |
4% |
|
95 |
2% |
2% |
|
96 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
98 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
79 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
80 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
81 |
2% |
97% |
|
82 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
83 |
57% |
94% |
Median |
84 |
2% |
37% |
|
85 |
3% |
35% |
|
86 |
3% |
32% |
|
87 |
25% |
28% |
|
88 |
2% |
3% |
|
89 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
90 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
Majority |
91 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
92 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
73 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
75 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
79 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
80 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
81 |
3% |
97% |
|
82 |
6% |
94% |
|
83 |
58% |
89% |
Median |
84 |
2% |
31% |
|
85 |
3% |
29% |
|
86 |
0.2% |
26% |
|
87 |
23% |
26% |
|
88 |
2% |
2% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
Majority |
91 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
92 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
79 |
23% |
99.4% |
|
80 |
2% |
76% |
Last Result |
81 |
4% |
74% |
|
82 |
2% |
71% |
|
83 |
56% |
69% |
Median |
84 |
6% |
13% |
|
85 |
4% |
7% |
|
86 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
87 |
2% |
3% |
|
88 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
91 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
76 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
79 |
23% |
99.4% |
|
80 |
2% |
76% |
|
81 |
4% |
74% |
|
82 |
2% |
71% |
|
83 |
56% |
69% |
Median |
84 |
6% |
13% |
|
85 |
4% |
7% |
|
86 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
87 |
2% |
3% |
|
88 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
91 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
74 |
27% |
99.2% |
|
75 |
2% |
72% |
|
76 |
4% |
70% |
|
77 |
2% |
66% |
|
78 |
57% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
79 |
2% |
7% |
|
80 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
81 |
1.5% |
4% |
|
82 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
83 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
60 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
62 |
1.5% |
99.5% |
|
63 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
64 |
2% |
97% |
|
65 |
6% |
95% |
|
66 |
2% |
89% |
|
67 |
58% |
87% |
Median |
68 |
3% |
29% |
|
69 |
23% |
26% |
|
70 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
73 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
75 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
61 |
0.6% |
99.3% |
|
62 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
63 |
4% |
97% |
|
64 |
3% |
93% |
|
65 |
6% |
90% |
|
66 |
2% |
84% |
|
67 |
55% |
82% |
Median |
68 |
2% |
27% |
|
69 |
24% |
25% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
73 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
75 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
59 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
60 |
23% |
98% |
|
61 |
7% |
75% |
|
62 |
6% |
68% |
|
63 |
54% |
62% |
Median |
64 |
3% |
8% |
Last Result |
65 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
66 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
67 |
4% |
4% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
49 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
51 |
2% |
96% |
|
52 |
2% |
94% |
|
53 |
59% |
92% |
Median |
54 |
4% |
33% |
|
55 |
27% |
29% |
|
56 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
60 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
45 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
46 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
47 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
48 |
7% |
96% |
|
49 |
57% |
90% |
Median |
50 |
0.4% |
32% |
|
51 |
30% |
32% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
53 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
55 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
2% |
98% |
|
18 |
60% |
96% |
Median |
19 |
23% |
36% |
|
20 |
8% |
12% |
|
21 |
2% |
4% |
|
22 |
2% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): B.T.
- Fieldwork period: 10–12 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1265
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.30%