Opinion Poll by YouGov for B.T., 10–12 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 25.9% 31.0% 29.4–32.7% 28.9–33.2% 28.5–33.6% 27.7–34.4%
Det Konservative Folkeparti 6.6% 16.8% 15.5–18.3% 15.2–18.7% 14.9–19.0% 14.3–19.7%
Venstre 23.4% 10.3% 9.3–11.5% 9.0–11.8% 8.7–12.1% 8.2–12.7%
Nye Borgerlige 2.4% 9.8% 8.8–11.0% 8.5–11.3% 8.3–11.6% 7.8–12.1%
Socialistisk Folkeparti 7.7% 7.9% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.5% 6.1–10.1%
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 6.9% 7.4% 6.5–8.4% 6.2–8.7% 6.0–8.9% 5.6–9.4%
Dansk Folkeparti 8.7% 7.1% 6.3–8.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.8–8.7% 5.4–9.2%
Radikale Venstre 8.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.1–5.3% 2.8–5.7%
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.5%
Kristendemokraterne 1.7% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.5% 0.9–2.8%
Veganerpartiet 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Alternativet 3.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne 48 54 51–55 51–57 51–59 51–61
Det Konservative Folkeparti 12 31 30–32 29–32 27–32 26–35
Venstre 43 18 18–20 18–20 17–22 16–22
Nye Borgerlige 4 16 16–18 16–20 15–21 14–22
Socialistisk Folkeparti 14 15 14–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 13 14 13–14 12–14 12–15 11–17
Dansk Folkeparti 16 14 12–14 10–14 10–15 10–15
Radikale Venstre 16 9 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Liberal Alliance 4 4 4–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Kristendemokraterne 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Veganerpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Alternativet 5 0 0 0 0 0

Socialdemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialdemokraterne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100% Last Result
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 23% 99.5%  
52 0.2% 76%  
53 3% 76%  
54 57% 73% Median
55 8% 16%  
56 2% 8%  
57 2% 6%  
58 0.2% 5%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 1.0% 1.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Det Konservative Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 1.5% 100%  
27 2% 98%  
28 0.8% 97%  
29 4% 96%  
30 5% 92%  
31 60% 87% Median
32 25% 27%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.8%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 2% 98%  
18 60% 96% Median
19 23% 36%  
20 8% 12%  
21 2% 4%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Nye Borgerlige

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nye Borgerlige page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.9%  
15 2% 98.8%  
16 54% 97% Median
17 4% 42%  
18 28% 38%  
19 4% 10%  
20 4% 6%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialistisk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistisk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 5% 97%  
14 26% 92% Last Result
15 58% 66% Median
16 6% 8%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 4% 98%  
13 10% 94% Last Result
14 81% 85% Median
15 1.3% 4%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.6% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Dansk Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dansk Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 7% 99.5%  
11 3% 93%  
12 5% 90%  
13 3% 85%  
14 79% 82% Median
15 3% 4%  
16 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Radikale Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Radikale Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 10% 99.6%  
7 1.4% 89%  
8 8% 88%  
9 78% 80% Median
10 1.4% 1.5%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Alliance

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Alliance page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 84% 95% Last Result, Median
5 9% 11%  
6 1.3% 1.4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Kristendemokraterne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristendemokraterne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 6% 8%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Veganerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Veganerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Alternativet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet 96 92 68% 88–92 88–93 87–94 85–96
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre 91 92 68% 88–92 88–93 87–94 85–96
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 79 83 0.6% 83–87 82–87 80–88 79–90
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 79 83 0.3% 82–87 81–87 80–87 79–88
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet 80 83 0.2% 79–84 79–85 79–87 77–88
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne 75 83 0.2% 79–84 79–85 79–87 77–88
Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre 78 78 0% 74–78 74–80 74–81 72–83
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne 75 67 0% 65–69 64–69 63–70 62–73
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance 75 67 0% 65–69 63–69 62–69 59–71
Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre 64 63 0% 60–63 60–66 60–67 58–67
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance 59 53 0% 53–55 51–55 49–55 47–56
Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre 55 49 0% 48–51 48–51 46–51 44–54
Venstre 43 18 0% 18–20 18–20 17–22 16–22

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.6%  
85 0.2% 99.5%  
86 0.9% 99.4%  
87 2% 98%  
88 25% 96%  
89 3% 71%  
90 3% 68% Majority
91 2% 65%  
92 57% 62% Median
93 1.2% 6%  
94 2% 4%  
95 2% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
97 0% 0.2%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.6%  
85 0.2% 99.5%  
86 0.9% 99.4%  
87 2% 98%  
88 25% 96%  
89 3% 71%  
90 3% 68% Majority
91 2% 65% Last Result
92 57% 62% Median
93 1.2% 6%  
94 2% 4%  
95 2% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.0%  
97 0% 0.2%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
80 2% 99.0%  
81 2% 97%  
82 1.2% 96%  
83 57% 94% Median
84 2% 37%  
85 3% 35%  
86 3% 32%  
87 25% 28%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.6% Majority
91 0% 0.4%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Nye Borgerlige – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0.1% 99.6%  
79 1.0% 99.6% Last Result
80 2% 98.6%  
81 3% 97%  
82 6% 94%  
83 58% 89% Median
84 2% 31%  
85 3% 29%  
86 0.2% 26%  
87 23% 26%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3% Majority
91 0% 0.3%  
92 0.3% 0.3%  
93 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne – Alternativet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.6%  
78 0.1% 99.5%  
79 23% 99.4%  
80 2% 76% Last Result
81 4% 74%  
82 2% 71%  
83 56% 69% Median
84 6% 13%  
85 4% 7%  
86 0.6% 3%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.6% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Majority
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Enhedslisten–De Rød-Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0% 99.8% Last Result
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.6%  
78 0.1% 99.5%  
79 23% 99.4%  
80 2% 76%  
81 4% 74%  
82 2% 71%  
83 56% 69% Median
84 6% 13%  
85 4% 7%  
86 0.6% 3%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.6% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Majority
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Socialistisk Folkeparti – Radikale Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.3% 99.5%  
74 27% 99.2%  
75 2% 72%  
76 4% 70%  
77 2% 66%  
78 57% 64% Last Result, Median
79 2% 7%  
80 1.2% 5%  
81 1.5% 4%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 1.2% 1.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance – Kristendemokraterne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 0% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.7%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 1.5% 99.5%  
63 1.4% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 6% 95%  
66 2% 89%  
67 58% 87% Median
68 3% 29%  
69 23% 26%  
70 1.3% 3%  
71 0.2% 2%  
72 0.3% 2%  
73 1.1% 1.4%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
76 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Dansk Folkeparti – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.6%  
60 0.2% 99.5%  
61 0.6% 99.3%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 4% 97%  
64 3% 93%  
65 6% 90%  
66 2% 84%  
67 55% 82% Median
68 2% 27%  
69 24% 25%  
70 0.1% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.5%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
76 0% 0%  

Socialdemokraterne – Radikale Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.6%  
59 2% 99.4%  
60 23% 98%  
61 7% 75%  
62 6% 68%  
63 54% 62% Median
64 3% 8% Last Result
65 0.6% 6%  
66 0.8% 5%  
67 4% 4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre – Liberal Alliance

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.2% 99.3%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 0.4% 97%  
51 2% 96%  
52 2% 94%  
53 59% 92% Median
54 4% 33%  
55 27% 29%  
56 0.7% 1.2%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.3% Last Result
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Det Konservative Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.5%  
46 0.4% 98%  
47 1.0% 97%  
48 7% 96%  
49 57% 90% Median
50 0.4% 32%  
51 30% 32%  
52 0.4% 2%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.1% 0.5%  
55 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 2% 98%  
18 60% 96% Median
19 23% 36%  
20 8% 12%  
21 2% 4%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations