Opinion Poll by Medián for HVG, 14–18 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 64.0% | 62.0–65.9% | 61.5–66.5% | 61.0–66.9% | 60.0–67.8% |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 14 | 14–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 8% | 100% | |
| 14 | 74% | 92% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 17% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 29% | 100% | |
| 6 | 70% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 19% | 19% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 29% | 100% | |
| 6 | 70% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 19% | 19% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Medián
- Commissioner(s): HVG
- Fieldwork period: 14–18 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.09%