Opinion Poll by Index for La7, 25 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 22.6% | 20.8–24.6% | 20.3–25.2% | 19.9–25.7% | 19.0–26.6% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.6% | 19.8–23.6% | 19.3–24.1% | 18.9–24.6% | 18.1–25.6% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 15.2% | 13.7–17.0% | 13.3–17.5% | 12.9–17.9% | 12.2–18.8% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 12.5% | 11.1–14.1% | 10.7–14.6% | 10.4–15.0% | 9.8–15.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.0–6.6% | 3.8–6.9% | 3.4–7.5% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.4–4.3% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.4–4.3% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.2–4.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 11% | 97% | |
| 19 | 20% | 86% | |
| 20 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 21 | 33% | 49% | |
| 22 | 9% | 16% | |
| 23 | 5% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 10% | 98% | |
| 17 | 18% | 89% | |
| 18 | 31% | 71% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 39% | |
| 20 | 13% | 20% | |
| 21 | 4% | 7% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 16% | 98% | |
| 13 | 39% | 82% | Median |
| 14 | 20% | 43% | |
| 15 | 15% | 23% | |
| 16 | 8% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 24% | 91% | |
| 11 | 40% | 67% | Median |
| 12 | 22% | 28% | |
| 13 | 4% | 6% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 21% | 95% | |
| 7 | 53% | 74% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 21% | |
| 9 | 7% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Più Europa–Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 4 | 42% | 96% | |
| 5 | 28% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 24% | 25% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Articolo Uno (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Articolo Uno (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 13 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 16% | 98% | |
| 13 | 39% | 82% | Median |
| 14 | 20% | 43% | |
| 15 | 15% | 23% | |
| 16 | 8% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Index
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 25 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.43%