Opinion Poll by Lab2101 for Affari Italiani, 15–16 June 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 19.4% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.4–21.6% | 17.1–22.0% | 16.4–22.8% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 17.5% | 16.0–19.1% | 15.6–19.6% | 15.3–20.0% | 14.6–20.8% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 14.2% | 12.9–15.7% | 12.5–16.1% | 12.2–16.5% | 11.6–17.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 18 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 16 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 4% | 98% | |
| 17 | 20% | 94% | |
| 18 | 25% | 74% | Median |
| 19 | 41% | 49% | |
| 20 | 8% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 25% | 95% | |
| 16 | 45% | 70% | Median |
| 17 | 19% | 25% | |
| 18 | 5% | 6% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 14% | 97% | |
| 14 | 37% | 83% | Median |
| 15 | 36% | 46% | |
| 16 | 7% | 10% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 10 | 15% | 99.4% | |
| 11 | 40% | 84% | Median |
| 12 | 27% | 44% | |
| 13 | 15% | 18% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 24% | 97% | |
| 6 | 40% | 73% | Median |
| 7 | 32% | 33% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Più Europa–Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 5% | 96% | |
| 4 | 66% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 25% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 3% | 8% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Articolo Uno (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Articolo Uno (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 14% | 97% | |
| 14 | 37% | 83% | Median |
| 15 | 36% | 46% | |
| 16 | 7% | 10% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Lab2101
- Commissioner(s): Affari Italiani
- Fieldwork period: 15–16 June 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.31%