Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 16–17 June 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.5% | 19.9–23.2% | 19.4–23.7% | 19.1–24.2% | 18.3–25.0% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 15.2% | 13.8–16.8% | 13.4–17.2% | 13.1–17.6% | 12.5–18.3% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 12.3% | 11.1–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.4–14.5% | 9.8–15.2% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.5% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.6–12.5% |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 16–22 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 17% | 96% | |
| 19 | 28% | 78% | |
| 20 | 36% | 51% | Median |
| 21 | 12% | 15% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 15 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 19% | 93% | |
| 17 | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 34% | |
| 19 | 13% | 16% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 33% | 90% | |
| 13 | 28% | 57% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 29% | |
| 15 | 9% | 11% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 9 | 16% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 45% | 83% | Median |
| 11 | 30% | 39% | |
| 12 | 7% | 9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 16% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 43% | 83% | Median |
| 9 | 32% | 41% | |
| 10 | 7% | 9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Più Europa–Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 91% | |
| 2 | 0% | 91% | |
| 3 | 3% | 91% | |
| 4 | 53% | 88% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 35% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 13 | 0% | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 33% | 90% | |
| 13 | 28% | 57% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 29% | |
| 15 | 9% | 11% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): Agenzia Dire
- Fieldwork period: 16–17 June 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.77%