Opinion Poll by Demopolis, 27–28 June 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.0% | 21.8–24.2% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.2–24.9% | 20.7–25.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.0% | 20.8–23.2% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.2–23.9% | 19.7–24.5% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 15.2% | 14.2–16.3% | 13.9–16.6% | 13.7–16.8% | 13.2–17.4% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 10.5% | 9.7–11.4% | 9.4–11.7% | 9.2–11.9% | 8.8–12.4% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.5% | 5.9–8.9% |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 33% | 95% | |
| 18 | 43% | 62% | Median |
| 19 | 17% | 19% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 25% | 97% | |
| 16 | 45% | 73% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 27% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 34% | 97% | |
| 12 | 50% | 64% | Median |
| 13 | 13% | 14% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 61% | 88% | Median |
| 9 | 26% | 27% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 36% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 58% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Più Europa–Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 53% | |
| 2 | 0% | 53% | |
| 3 | 42% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 11% | 11% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 34% | 97% | |
| 12 | 50% | 64% | Median |
| 13 | 13% | 14% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demopolis
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27–28 June 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.58%