Opinion Poll by EMG, 27–28 June 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 22.8% | 21.2–24.6% | 20.7–25.1% | 20.3–25.5% | 19.5–26.4% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.3% | 20.7–24.1% | 20.2–24.6% | 19.8–25.0% | 19.1–25.8% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 10.2% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.5–12.2% | 8.0–12.9% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.4% | 6.9–9.8% | 6.6–10.1% | 6.2–10.7% |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Insieme per il Futuro (NI) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–10 |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Insieme per il Futuro (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 36% | 92% | |
| 20 | 44% | 56% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 12% | |
| 22 | 4% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 98% | |
| 17 | 13% | 93% | |
| 18 | 43% | 80% | Median |
| 19 | 26% | 37% | |
| 20 | 4% | 11% | |
| 21 | 4% | 7% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 37% | 89% | |
| 12 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 11% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 33% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 7% | 67% | |
| 9 | 53% | 60% | Median |
| 10 | 7% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 98% | |
| 7 | 59% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 31% | 33% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Più Europa–Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 87% | |
| 2 | 0% | 87% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 4 | 78% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 0% | 58% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 58% | |
| 4 | 51% | 57% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Articolo Uno (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Articolo Uno (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Insieme per il Futuro (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Insieme per il Futuro (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 0% | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 37% | 89% | |
| 12 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 11% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: EMG
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27–28 June 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.41%