Opinion Poll by Euromedia for La Stampa, 22 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.5% | 21.8–25.3% | 21.4–25.8% | 21.0–26.2% | 20.2–27.1% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.8% | 21.2–24.6% | 20.7–25.1% | 20.3–25.5% | 19.5–26.4% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| Insieme per il Futuro (NI) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Insieme per il Futuro (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 18% | 97% | |
| 20 | 22% | 79% | |
| 21 | 43% | 57% | Median |
| 22 | 12% | 14% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 15% | 97% | |
| 18 | 31% | 83% | |
| 19 | 28% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 20% | 23% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 31% | 91% | |
| 12 | 46% | 60% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 14% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 19% | 98% | |
| 8 | 57% | 79% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 22% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 28% | 95% | |
| 7 | 53% | 67% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 14% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Più Europa–Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 4 | 73% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 23% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 4% | 7% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Insieme per il Futuro (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Insieme per il Futuro (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Articolo Uno (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Articolo Uno (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 31% | 91% | |
| 12 | 46% | 60% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 14% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Euromedia
- Commissioner(s): La Stampa
- Fieldwork period: 22 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.75%