Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 26–28 July 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 24.3% 23.5–25.2% 23.2–25.4% 23.0–25.6% 22.6–26.0%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 23.0% 22.2–23.8% 22.0–24.1% 21.8–24.3% 21.4–24.7%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 14.7% 14.0–15.4% 13.8–15.6% 13.7–15.8% 13.4–16.1%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 11.3% 10.7–11.9% 10.5–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.1–12.6%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 7.2% 6.7–7.7% 6.6–7.9% 6.5–8.0% 6.2–8.3%
Più Europa–Azione (RE) 0.0% 4.6% 4.2–5.0% 4.1–5.2% 4.0–5.3% 3.8–5.5%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 2.2–2.9% 2.1–2.9% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.1–2.7% 2.0–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.8–3.1%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.3% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 20 19–21 19–21 19–21 18–21
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 18 17–19 17–19 17–19 16–20
Lega Nord (ID) 5 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 11–13
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 9 9–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Più Europa–Azione (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 0–4 0–5
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.6% 100%  
19 27% 99.4%  
20 61% 72% Median
21 11% 11%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.9% 100%  
17 31% 99.1%  
18 57% 69% Median
19 10% 11%  
20 1.0% 1.0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 12% 100%  
12 68% 88% Median
13 20% 20%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 9% 100%  
9 67% 91% Median
10 23% 23%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 12% 100%  
6 83% 88% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Più Europa–Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 11% 96%  
4 84% 85% Median
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 12 0% 11–13 11–13 11–13 11–13

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 12% 100%  
12 68% 88% Median
13 20% 20%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations