Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, 29–30 July 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.3% | 21.6–25.1% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.9% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 23.2% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–25.9% | 19.9–26.8% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.5–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.4% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Insieme per il Futuro (NI) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 21 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Insieme per il Futuro (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 10% | 96% | |
| 20 | 12% | 86% | |
| 21 | 65% | 74% | Median |
| 22 | 6% | 9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 5% | 96% | |
| 19 | 12% | 91% | |
| 20 | 14% | 79% | |
| 21 | 64% | 65% | Median |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 9% | 92% | |
| 12 | 70% | 83% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 13% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 16% | 98.6% | |
| 10 | 69% | 83% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 14% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 73% | 99.1% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 26% | |
| 9 | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Più Europa–Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 4 | 6% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Articolo Uno (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Articolo Uno (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Insieme per il Futuro (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Insieme per il Futuro (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 9% | 92% | |
| 12 | 70% | 83% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 13% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Corriere della Sera
- Fieldwork period: 29–30 July 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.98%