Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 4–6 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 24.4% 23.5–25.3% 23.3–25.5% 23.1–25.7% 22.7–26.2%
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 24.2% 23.4–25.1% 23.1–25.3% 22.9–25.5% 22.5–26.0%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 13.3% 12.6–14.0% 12.5–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.0–14.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 9.6% 9.0–10.2% 8.9–10.4% 8.7–10.5% 8.5–10.9%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 6.7% 6.2–7.2% 6.1–7.4% 6.0–7.5% 5.7–7.8%
Più Europa–Azione (RE) 0.0% 5.8% 5.3–6.3% 5.2–6.4% 5.1–6.6% 4.9–6.8%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.4% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.5% 1.8–2.6% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.9%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.5% 1.8–2.6% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.9%
Impegno Civico (NI) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.0% 0.6–1.1% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 19 18–20 18–20 18–21 17–21
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 20 19–20 19–21 18–21 18–21
Lega Nord (ID) 5 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Più Europa–Azione (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Impegno Civico (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.2% 100%  
18 23% 98.8%  
19 47% 75% Median
20 25% 28%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 4% 100%  
19 43% 96%  
20 45% 53% Median
21 8% 8%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 23% 99.9%  
11 66% 77% Median
12 11% 11%  
13 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 28% 100%  
8 65% 72% Median
9 6% 7%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 39% 99.9%  
6 60% 61% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Più Europa–Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 19% 100%  
5 79% 81% Median
6 1.5% 1.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 37% 51% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Impegno Civico (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 11 0% 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–12

Lega Nord (ID)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 23% 99.9%  
11 66% 77% Median
12 11% 11%  
13 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations