Opinion Poll by Noto Sondaggi, 17 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.2% 18.3–25.0%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Impegno Civico (NI) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 20 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 17 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–12
Lega Nord (ID) 5 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Impegno Civico (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.6% 100%  
18 5% 99.4%  
19 25% 95%  
20 40% 70% Median
21 20% 29%  
22 9% 10%  
23 0.8% 1.1%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.9%  
15 9% 98.6%  
16 17% 90%  
17 35% 73% Median
18 34% 38%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.1% 100%  
9 32% 98.9%  
10 24% 67% Median
11 32% 43%  
12 10% 10%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 11% 99.1%  
10 35% 88%  
11 41% 53% Median
12 11% 12%  
13 0.8% 0.8%  
14 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 15% 99.7%  
6 57% 85% Median
7 24% 28%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Azione–Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 15% 99.8%  
6 63% 85% Median
7 20% 22%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.4% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.4% 0.5%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Impegno Civico (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 11 0% 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 11% 99.1%  
10 35% 88%  
11 41% 53% Median
12 11% 12%  
13 0.8% 0.8%  
14 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations