Opinion Poll by Piepoli for RaiNews24, 25 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.4% | 22.3–27.2% | 21.6–27.9% | 21.0–28.6% | 19.9–29.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.9% | 19.8–24.5% | 19.1–25.2% | 18.6–25.8% | 17.6–27.1% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.6% | 10.9–14.7% | 10.4–15.3% | 10.0–15.8% | 9.2–16.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 11.0% | 9.4–13.0% | 8.9–13.5% | 8.6–14.1% | 7.8–15.1% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.9% | 6.6–9.8% | 6.2–10.3% | 5.9–10.7% | 5.3–11.6% |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.2% | 5.1–9.6% | 4.5–10.5% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.1–3.6% | 0.9–4.2% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 7% | 96% | |
| 19 | 14% | 88% | |
| 20 | 25% | 74% | Median |
| 21 | 25% | 48% | |
| 22 | 12% | 23% | |
| 23 | 8% | 11% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 13% | 95% | |
| 16 | 17% | 82% | |
| 17 | 25% | 65% | Median |
| 18 | 17% | 40% | |
| 19 | 15% | 23% | |
| 20 | 7% | 9% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 18% | 94% | |
| 10 | 24% | 76% | |
| 11 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 12 | 19% | 26% | |
| 13 | 5% | 8% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 7 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 23% | 91% | |
| 9 | 35% | 67% | Median |
| 10 | 17% | 32% | |
| 11 | 9% | 15% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 28% | 88% | |
| 7 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 17% | 23% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 33% | 95% | |
| 6 | 37% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 19% | 25% | |
| 8 | 6% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 2% | 6% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 0% | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 18% | 94% | |
| 10 | 24% | 76% | |
| 11 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 12 | 19% | 26% | |
| 13 | 5% | 8% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Piepoli
- Commissioner(s): RaiNews24
- Fieldwork period: 25 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 356
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.55%