Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 24–25 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.7% | 23.9–25.5% | 23.7–25.7% | 23.5–25.9% | 23.2–26.3% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 23.3% | 22.6–24.1% | 22.4–24.3% | 22.2–24.5% | 21.8–24.8% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 14.3% | 13.7–14.9% | 13.5–15.1% | 13.4–15.3% | 13.1–15.6% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.2–11.3% | 10.0–11.4% | 9.9–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.2% | 6.8–7.7% | 6.6–7.8% | 6.5–7.9% | 6.3–8.2% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.4–5.2% | 4.3–5.3% | 4.2–5.4% | 4.1–5.6% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.2–2.8% | 2.2–2.9% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.7–2.2% | 1.6–2.3% | 1.6–2.3% | 1.5–2.5% |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.3–1.8% | 1.2–1.8% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–2.0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.4% | 1.0–1.5% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.9–1.7% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.7–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–22 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 19 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–20 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0% | 100% | |
18 | 0% | 100% | |
19 | 0.5% | 100% | |
20 | 26% | 99.5% | |
21 | 63% | 74% | Median |
22 | 10% | 11% | |
23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
24 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
17 | 2% | 100% | |
18 | 22% | 98% | |
19 | 67% | 77% | Median |
20 | 9% | 9% | |
21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
22 | 0% | 0% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 19% | 100% | |
12 | 69% | 81% | Median |
13 | 11% | 11% | |
14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 9% | 100% | |
9 | 55% | 91% | Median |
10 | 36% | 36% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | |
14 | 0% | 0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 9% | 100% | |
6 | 77% | 91% | Median |
7 | 15% | 15% | |
8 | 0% | 0% | |
9 | 0% | 0% | |
10 | 0% | 0% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
4 | 88% | 99.7% | Median |
5 | 12% | 12% | |
6 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 19% | 100% | |
12 | 69% | 81% | Median |
13 | 11% | 11% | |
14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–25 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 5300
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.50%