Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 24–27 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.1% | 22.4–25.9% | 21.9–26.4% | 21.5–26.8% | 20.8–27.7% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.7% | 21.0–24.4% | 20.6–25.0% | 20.2–25.4% | 19.4–26.2% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.3–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 8.7% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.4% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.3% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 18–24 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
19 | 20% | 98% | |
20 | 21% | 78% | |
21 | 25% | 57% | Median |
22 | 22% | 31% | |
23 | 4% | 10% | |
24 | 5% | 5% | |
25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
26 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
16 | 2% | 99.6% | |
17 | 7% | 98% | |
18 | 9% | 91% | |
19 | 28% | 82% | |
20 | 27% | 54% | Median |
21 | 27% | 28% | |
22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
10 | 3% | 99.6% | |
11 | 26% | 96% | |
12 | 46% | 71% | Median |
13 | 15% | 25% | |
14 | 7% | 9% | |
15 | 2% | 2% | |
16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
8 | 12% | 99.6% | |
9 | 23% | 88% | |
10 | 51% | 65% | Median |
11 | 9% | 14% | |
12 | 4% | 5% | |
13 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
14 | 0% | 0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
6 | 12% | 99.8% | |
7 | 20% | 87% | |
8 | 56% | 67% | Median |
9 | 11% | 11% | |
10 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 97% | |
2 | 0% | 97% | |
3 | 0.1% | 97% | |
4 | 38% | 97% | |
5 | 52% | 59% | Median |
6 | 7% | 7% | |
7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
8 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 3% | |
2 | 0% | 3% | |
3 | 0.7% | 3% | |
4 | 2% | 2% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
10 | 3% | 99.6% | |
11 | 26% | 96% | |
12 | 46% | 71% | Median |
13 | 15% | 25% | |
14 | 7% | 9% | |
15 | 2% | 2% | |
16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Quorum – YouTrend
- Commissioner(s): Sky TG24
- Fieldwork period: 24–27 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1005
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.98%