Opinion Poll by GDC, 25–28 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.2% | 22.6–25.9% | 22.1–26.4% | 21.7–26.8% | 21.0–27.6% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.5% | 21.0–24.2% | 20.5–24.7% | 20.1–25.1% | 19.4–25.9% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 13.1% | 11.9–14.5% | 11.6–14.9% | 11.3–15.3% | 10.7–16.0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 11.1% | 10.0–12.4% | 9.7–12.8% | 9.4–13.1% | 8.9–13.8% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.9–9.0% | 5.5–9.6% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.8–7.1% | 4.6–7.4% | 4.2–7.9% |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.8–4.4% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.3% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 21–23 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 11–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0% | 100% | |
18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
19 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
20 | 7% | 98.6% | |
21 | 71% | 92% | Median |
22 | 10% | 21% | |
23 | 6% | 11% | |
24 | 5% | 5% | |
25 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
26 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
16 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
17 | 4% | 98.7% | |
18 | 13% | 94% | |
19 | 70% | 81% | Median |
20 | 8% | 11% | |
21 | 2% | 3% | |
22 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0.6% | 100% | |
10 | 5% | 99.4% | |
11 | 14% | 95% | |
12 | 74% | 80% | Median |
13 | 5% | 7% | |
14 | 1.5% | 2% | |
15 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 6% | 100% | |
9 | 12% | 94% | |
10 | 67% | 82% | Median |
11 | 14% | 16% | |
12 | 2% | 2% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | |
14 | 0% | 0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 3% | 100% | |
6 | 12% | 97% | |
7 | 81% | 86% | Median |
8 | 3% | 4% | |
9 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
10 | 0% | 0% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
4 | 8% | 99.9% | |
5 | 18% | 92% | |
6 | 72% | 74% | Median |
7 | 1.5% | 2% | |
8 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 5% | |
2 | 0% | 5% | |
3 | 0.1% | 5% | |
4 | 5% | 5% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
3 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
4 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
3 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 12 | 0% | 11–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0.6% | 100% | |
10 | 5% | 99.4% | |
11 | 14% | 95% | |
12 | 74% | 80% | Median |
13 | 5% | 7% | |
14 | 1.5% | 2% | |
15 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GDC
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25–28 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1096
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.37%