Opinion Poll by EMG for Rai 3, 29 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.0% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.3–24.8% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.3–25.9% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.1% | 19.8–22.5% | 19.4–22.9% | 19.1–23.2% | 18.5–23.9% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.7% | 11.6–13.8% | 11.3–14.2% | 11.1–14.4% | 10.6–15.0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 11.6% | 10.6–12.7% | 10.3–13.0% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.6–13.8% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 8.3% | 7.5–9.3% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–9.8% | 6.7–10.3% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.4–8.8% |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.4% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.2% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.1% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 8 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
18 | 3% | 99.9% | |
19 | 24% | 97% | |
20 | 22% | 73% | |
21 | 33% | 51% | Median |
22 | 14% | 18% | |
23 | 3% | 3% | |
24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
25 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
15 | 3% | 100% | |
16 | 7% | 97% | |
17 | 34% | 90% | |
18 | 15% | 56% | Median |
19 | 30% | 41% | |
20 | 10% | 10% | |
21 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
22 | 0% | 0% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 2% | 100% | |
10 | 31% | 98% | |
11 | 35% | 67% | Median |
12 | 20% | 32% | |
13 | 11% | 12% | |
14 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
9 | 8% | 99.7% | |
10 | 47% | 91% | Median |
11 | 41% | 45% | |
12 | 3% | 3% | |
13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
14 | 0% | 0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
6 | 5% | 99.8% | |
7 | 34% | 95% | |
8 | 53% | 61% | Median |
9 | 8% | 8% | |
10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
5 | 13% | 99.8% | |
6 | 49% | 87% | Median |
7 | 35% | 38% | |
8 | 4% | 4% | |
9 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 4% | |
2 | 0% | 4% | |
3 | 0.2% | 4% | |
4 | 3% | 3% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.8% | |
2 | 0% | 0.8% | |
3 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 0% | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 2% | 100% | |
10 | 31% | 98% | |
11 | 35% | 67% | Median |
12 | 20% | 32% | |
13 | 11% | 12% | |
14 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: EMG
- Commissioner(s): Rai 3
- Fieldwork period: 29 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1523
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%