Opinion Poll by SWG for La7, 24–29 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.8% | 23.3–26.5% | 22.8–27.0% | 22.5–27.4% | 21.7–28.2% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.3% | 20.8–23.9% | 20.4–24.4% | 20.1–24.8% | 19.4–25.6% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.5% | 11.3–13.8% | 11.0–14.2% | 10.7–14.5% | 10.2–15.2% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 11.6% | 10.5–12.8% | 10.2–13.2% | 9.9–13.5% | 9.4–14.2% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.5–8.4% | 5.2–8.9% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.5–4.6% | 2.3–5.0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 17 | 17–19 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 16–21 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0% | 100% | |
18 | 1.1% | 100% | |
19 | 2% | 98.9% | |
20 | 34% | 97% | |
21 | 36% | 63% | Median |
22 | 16% | 27% | |
23 | 5% | 11% | |
24 | 6% | 6% | |
25 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
26 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
16 | 7% | 99.8% | |
17 | 56% | 93% | Median |
18 | 9% | 37% | |
19 | 19% | 27% | |
20 | 2% | 8% | |
21 | 6% | 6% | |
22 | 0% | 0% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
9 | 4% | 99.8% | |
10 | 31% | 96% | |
11 | 24% | 65% | Median |
12 | 41% | 41% | |
13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
14 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 2% | 100% | |
9 | 20% | 98% | |
10 | 62% | 79% | Median |
11 | 15% | 16% | |
12 | 1.5% | 2% | |
13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
14 | 0% | 0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
5 | 27% | 99.7% | |
6 | 53% | 72% | Median |
7 | 19% | 19% | |
8 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
10 | 0% | 0% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
5 | 19% | 99.1% | |
6 | 70% | 80% | Median |
7 | 9% | 10% | |
8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
9 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 15% | |
2 | 0% | 15% | |
3 | 7% | 15% | |
4 | 8% | 8% | |
5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
9 | 4% | 99.8% | |
10 | 31% | 96% | |
11 | 24% | 65% | Median |
12 | 41% | 41% | |
13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
14 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 24–29 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%