Opinion Poll by Tecnè, 26–29 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.6% | 23.4–25.9% | 23.0–26.2% | 22.8–26.6% | 22.2–27.2% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.2% | 21.0–23.4% | 20.7–23.8% | 20.4–24.1% | 19.9–24.7% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.9% | 12.0–13.9% | 11.7–14.2% | 11.5–14.4% | 11.1–15.0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.0–11.8% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.6–12.3% | 9.2–12.8% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 10.9% | 10.0–11.8% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.6–12.3% | 9.2–12.8% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.5–5.8% | 4.4–6.0% | 4.2–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.7% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–24 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 0–6 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0% | 100% | |
18 | 0% | 100% | |
19 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
20 | 21% | 98.8% | |
21 | 18% | 78% | |
22 | 24% | 59% | Median |
23 | 35% | 36% | |
24 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
25 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
16 | 0.8% | 100% | |
17 | 13% | 99.1% | |
18 | 45% | 86% | Median |
19 | 32% | 41% | |
20 | 8% | 9% | |
21 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
22 | 0% | 0% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0.6% | 100% | |
10 | 32% | 99.4% | |
11 | 44% | 67% | Median |
12 | 15% | 23% | |
13 | 8% | 8% | |
14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 5% | 100% | |
9 | 34% | 95% | |
10 | 48% | 61% | Median |
11 | 13% | 13% | |
12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | |
14 | 0% | 0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 5% | 100% | |
9 | 36% | 95% | |
10 | 41% | 59% | Median |
11 | 17% | 18% | |
12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
2 | 0% | 99.2% | |
3 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
4 | 65% | 98.7% | Median |
5 | 32% | 34% | |
6 | 2% | 2% | |
7 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0.6% | 100% | |
10 | 32% | 99.4% | |
11 | 44% | 67% | Median |
12 | 15% | 23% | |
13 | 8% | 8% | |
14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Tecnè
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–29 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.74%