Opinion Poll by BiDiMedia, 29–30 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 24.5% 23.0–26.2% 22.5–26.6% 22.2–27.0% 21.4–27.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 24.3% 22.8–26.0% 22.4–26.4% 22.0–26.8% 21.3–27.6%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 12.7% 11.5–14.0% 11.2–14.3% 10.9–14.7% 10.4–15.3%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 6.6% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9% 5.3–8.2% 5.0–8.7%
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 6.2% 5.4–7.2% 5.2–7.5% 5.0–7.7% 4.6–8.2%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.9%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.2%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.4%
Impegno Civico (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 22 20–24 19–24 19–24 18–24
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 20 18–22 18–22 18–22 17–23
Lega Nord (ID) 5 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–14
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Impegno Civico (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.8% 100%  
19 5% 99.2%  
20 24% 94%  
21 20% 70%  
22 20% 51% Median
23 15% 30%  
24 15% 15%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 15% 99.4%  
19 15% 84%  
20 38% 69% Median
21 18% 31%  
22 11% 13%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 4% 99.9%  
10 21% 96%  
11 35% 75% Median
12 32% 40%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.8% 0.8%  
15 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 14% 99.7%  
9 25% 86%  
10 24% 60% Median
11 34% 36%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 30% 99.0%  
6 51% 69% Median
7 17% 18%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Azione–Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 57% 95% Median
6 29% 38%  
7 8% 9%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Impegno Civico (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 11 0% 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–14

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 4% 99.9%  
10 21% 96%  
11 35% 75% Median
12 32% 40%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.8% 0.8%  
15 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations