Opinion Poll by Euromedia for Rai 1, 29–30 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.6% | 22.7–26.7% | 22.2–27.2% | 21.8–27.7% | 20.9–28.7% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 23.1% | 21.3–25.1% | 20.8–25.7% | 20.3–26.2% | 19.5–27.2% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.5% | 11.1–14.1% | 10.7–14.6% | 10.4–15.0% | 9.8–15.8% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 12.2% | 10.9–13.9% | 10.5–14.3% | 10.2–14.7% | 9.5–15.5% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.3–8.7% | 6.0–9.1% | 5.8–9.4% | 5.3–10.1% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.0–9.6% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.1–3.7% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.8–4.1% | 1.6–4.6% |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.2% | 1.0–3.7% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% | 0.7–3.0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–24 | 19–24 | 18–24 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–22 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
18 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
19 | 7% | 98.5% | |
20 | 13% | 91% | |
21 | 43% | 78% | Median |
22 | 17% | 35% | |
23 | 10% | 18% | |
24 | 7% | 8% | |
25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
26 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
16 | 2% | 99.7% | |
17 | 9% | 98% | |
18 | 32% | 89% | |
19 | 17% | 57% | Median |
20 | 30% | 40% | |
21 | 8% | 11% | |
22 | 2% | 3% | |
23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 3% | 100% | |
9 | 6% | 97% | |
10 | 26% | 91% | |
11 | 43% | 66% | Median |
12 | 19% | 22% | |
13 | 3% | 4% | |
14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
9 | 9% | 99.0% | |
10 | 40% | 90% | Median |
11 | 35% | 50% | |
12 | 7% | 15% | |
13 | 7% | 8% | |
14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
5 | 8% | 99.8% | |
6 | 39% | 92% | |
7 | 42% | 52% | Median |
8 | 9% | 10% | |
9 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
10 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
4 | 1.3% | 100% | |
5 | 24% | 98.7% | |
6 | 48% | 75% | Median |
7 | 23% | 27% | |
8 | 4% | 4% | |
9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 2% | |
2 | 0% | 2% | |
3 | 0.5% | 2% | |
4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 3% | 100% | |
9 | 6% | 97% | |
10 | 26% | 91% | |
11 | 43% | 66% | Median |
12 | 19% | 22% | |
13 | 3% | 4% | |
14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Euromedia
- Commissioner(s): Rai 1
- Fieldwork period: 29–30 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.04%