Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 30 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.6% | 21.3–26.2% | 20.6–26.9% | 20.1–27.5% | 19.0–28.8% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.9% | 19.8–24.5% | 19.1–25.2% | 18.6–25.8% | 17.6–27.1% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.1% | 10.3–14.1% | 9.8–14.6% | 9.4–15.2% | 8.7–16.2% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 11.0% | 9.4–13.0% | 8.9–13.5% | 8.6–14.1% | 7.8–15.1% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 10.1% | 8.5–11.9% | 8.0–12.5% | 7.7–13.0% | 7.0–13.9% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.5–8.0% | 4.2–8.4% | 3.7–9.3% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.1–3.6% | 0.9–4.2% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.1–3.6% | 0.9–4.2% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.7% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 16–25 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
16 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
17 | 3% | 99.3% | |
18 | 6% | 96% | |
19 | 28% | 90% | |
20 | 41% | 62% | Median |
21 | 13% | 22% | |
22 | 5% | 8% | |
23 | 3% | 3% | |
24 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
25 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
27 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
14 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
15 | 6% | 98.6% | |
16 | 6% | 93% | |
17 | 37% | 87% | |
18 | 28% | 50% | Median |
19 | 10% | 22% | |
20 | 6% | 12% | |
21 | 5% | 6% | |
22 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0.5% | 100% | |
8 | 4% | 99.5% | |
9 | 13% | 96% | |
10 | 38% | 83% | Median |
11 | 33% | 45% | |
12 | 10% | 12% | |
13 | 2% | 2% | |
14 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
8 | 7% | 98% | |
9 | 37% | 91% | |
10 | 35% | 54% | Median |
11 | 17% | 19% | |
12 | 1.3% | 2% | |
13 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
14 | 0% | 0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
6 | 3% | 100% | |
7 | 5% | 97% | |
8 | 20% | 93% | |
9 | 31% | 72% | Median |
10 | 38% | 41% | |
11 | 2% | 3% | |
12 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
14 | 0% | 0% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
3 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
4 | 23% | 99.3% | |
5 | 48% | 76% | Median |
6 | 25% | 29% | |
7 | 3% | 4% | |
8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
9 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 3% | |
2 | 0% | 3% | |
3 | 0.2% | 3% | |
4 | 3% | 3% | |
5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
3 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 10 | 0% | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0.5% | 100% | |
8 | 4% | 99.5% | |
9 | 13% | 96% | |
10 | 38% | 83% | Median |
11 | 33% | 45% | |
12 | 10% | 12% | |
13 | 2% | 2% | |
14 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Piepoli
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 356
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.32%