Opinion Poll by IZI, 30–31 August 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.4–26.8% | 22.0–27.2% | 21.2–28.1% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.8% | 20.2–23.5% | 19.8–24.0% | 19.4–24.4% | 18.6–25.3% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.4% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.0% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.7% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.1–10.4% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.7% | 3.7–7.3% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.7–2.7% |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–24 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 17 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 9 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 0–6 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
18 | 3% | 99.8% | |
19 | 30% | 97% | |
20 | 47% | 66% | Median |
21 | 7% | 20% | |
22 | 10% | 13% | |
23 | 1.3% | 2% | |
24 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
26 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
14 | 1.0% | 100% | |
15 | 2% | 99.0% | |
16 | 7% | 97% | |
17 | 40% | 90% | Median |
18 | 17% | 50% | |
19 | 5% | 33% | |
20 | 27% | 28% | |
21 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
22 | 0% | 0% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
9 | 2% | 99.9% | |
10 | 13% | 97% | |
11 | 44% | 84% | Median |
12 | 31% | 40% | |
13 | 9% | 9% | |
14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 1.2% | 100% | |
9 | 73% | 98.7% | Median |
10 | 10% | 26% | |
11 | 6% | 16% | |
12 | 9% | 10% | |
13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 3% | 100% | |
6 | 32% | 97% | |
7 | 50% | 65% | Median |
8 | 14% | 15% | |
9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
10 | 0% | 0% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 1.3% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 98.7% | |
2 | 0% | 98.7% | |
3 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
4 | 51% | 98% | Median |
5 | 45% | 47% | |
6 | 2% | 2% | |
7 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
3 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 9 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 1.2% | 100% | |
9 | 73% | 98.7% | Median |
10 | 10% | 26% | |
11 | 6% | 16% | |
12 | 9% | 10% | |
13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
14 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IZI
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30–31 August 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1037
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.38%