Opinion Poll by Noto Sondaggi for Rai 1, 30–31 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Impegno Civico (NI) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 21 19–23 19–23 18–23 18–24
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 16 15–18 14–18 14–19 14–20
Lega Nord (ID) 5 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–14
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 11 9–13 9–13 9–13 8–13
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–4
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Impegno Civico (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partito Progressista (*) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 4% 99.7%  
19 14% 96%  
20 30% 81%  
21 28% 51% Median
22 11% 23%  
23 11% 12%  
24 0.7% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 5% 99.8%  
15 12% 94%  
16 33% 83% Median
17 34% 50%  
18 11% 16%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 6% 99.6%  
11 31% 94%  
12 34% 62% Median
13 21% 28%  
14 7% 7%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 9% 99.0%  
10 27% 89%  
11 28% 63% Median
12 19% 35%  
13 16% 16%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Azione–Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 31% 97%  
7 36% 67% Median
8 26% 31%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 11% 99.9%  
6 47% 89% Median
7 25% 42%  
8 15% 17%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0.3% 4%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0.1% 1.0%  
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Impegno Civico (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 12 0% 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–14

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 6% 99.6%  
11 31% 94%  
12 34% 62% Median
13 21% 28%  
14 7% 7%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations