Opinion Poll by Ixè, 29 August–2 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 22.7% | 21.2–24.3% | 20.7–24.7% | 20.4–25.1% | 19.7–25.9% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.7% | 20.2–23.3% | 19.8–23.7% | 19.4–24.1% | 18.7–24.9% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 13.8% | 12.6–15.2% | 12.3–15.5% | 12.0–15.9% | 11.4–16.6% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 10.9% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.5–12.5% | 9.3–12.8% | 8.8–13.4% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 7.9% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.5–9.6% | 6.1–10.2% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.2% | 6.0–8.4% | 5.8–8.7% | 5.4–9.2% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.7–4.2% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.9% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.4–1.8% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 17 | 16–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 11 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0.8% | 100% | |
17 | 4% | 99.2% | |
18 | 29% | 95% | |
19 | 44% | 66% | Median |
20 | 16% | 22% | |
21 | 3% | 5% | |
22 | 2% | 2% | |
23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
24 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
15 | 6% | 99.8% | |
16 | 20% | 93% | |
17 | 47% | 74% | Median |
18 | 20% | 26% | |
19 | 5% | 6% | |
20 | 2% | 2% | |
21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
22 | 0% | 0% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
10 | 5% | 99.7% | |
11 | 48% | 95% | Median |
12 | 17% | 47% | |
13 | 28% | 29% | |
14 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 1.4% | 100% | |
8 | 10% | 98.6% | |
9 | 41% | 89% | Median |
10 | 30% | 48% | |
11 | 18% | 18% | |
12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
13 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 2% | 100% | |
6 | 30% | 98% | |
7 | 57% | 68% | Median |
8 | 12% | 12% | |
9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
10 | 0% | 0% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
5 | 14% | 99.7% | |
6 | 73% | 85% | Median |
7 | 12% | 13% | |
8 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
10 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.5% | |
2 | 0% | 0.5% | |
3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 9 | 0% | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 1.4% | 100% | |
8 | 10% | 98.6% | |
9 | 41% | 89% | Median |
10 | 30% | 48% | |
11 | 18% | 18% | |
12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
13 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ixè
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 August–2 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1209
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%