Opinion Poll by GPF, 31 August–4 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 24.4% | 23.4–25.5% | 23.2–25.8% | 22.9–26.0% | 22.5–26.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 22.6% | 21.7–23.6% | 21.4–23.9% | 21.2–24.2% | 20.7–24.7% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 13.4% | 12.6–14.2% | 12.4–14.5% | 12.2–14.7% | 11.9–15.1% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.7% | 11.9–13.5% | 11.7–13.7% | 11.6–13.9% | 11.2–14.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 8.0% | 7.4–8.7% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.8–9.4% |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.2–4.1% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.8–4.6% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.5% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% |
| Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 20–21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 19–23 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–13 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 78% | 98.7% | Median |
| 21 | 15% | 20% | |
| 22 | 5% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 4% | 100% | |
| 17 | 6% | 96% | |
| 18 | 78% | 90% | Median |
| 19 | 2% | 12% | |
| 20 | 9% | 9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 11 | 80% | 99.4% | Median |
| 12 | 19% | 20% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 85% | 88% | Median |
| 12 | 2% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 11% | 100% | |
| 7 | 88% | 89% | Median |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 81% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 2% | 9% | |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 0% | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 85% | 88% | Median |
| 12 | 2% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GPF
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–4 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.61%