Opinion Poll by CISE, 31 August–5 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.0% | 21.2–24.9% | 20.7–25.5% | 20.3–25.9% | 19.5–26.9% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.4% | 19.7–23.2% | 19.2–23.8% | 18.8–24.2% | 18.0–25.2% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 16.6% | 15.1–18.3% | 14.6–18.8% | 14.3–19.3% | 13.6–20.1% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 9.6% | 8.5–11.1% | 8.1–11.4% | 7.8–11.8% | 7.3–12.5% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.4–10.0% | 5.9–10.7% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.2–6.8% | 4.0–7.1% | 3.6–7.6% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.5–5.1% | 2.2–5.6% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.5–3.6% | 1.3–4.0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.4% | 0.6–2.8% |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–23 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
17 | 12% | 97% | |
18 | 39% | 86% | Median |
19 | 24% | 47% | |
20 | 16% | 23% | |
21 | 6% | 7% | |
22 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
23 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
25 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
14 | 2% | 99.8% | |
15 | 13% | 98% | |
16 | 34% | 85% | |
17 | 34% | 51% | Median |
18 | 12% | 17% | |
19 | 4% | 4% | |
20 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
22 | 0% | 0% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
11 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
12 | 15% | 98.7% | |
13 | 10% | 84% | |
14 | 32% | 74% | Median |
15 | 35% | 42% | |
16 | 6% | 7% | |
17 | 0.8% | 1.0% | Last Result |
18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
19 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 4% | 100% | |
7 | 29% | 95% | |
8 | 32% | 67% | Median |
9 | 29% | 35% | |
10 | 6% | 6% | |
11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
12 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
6 | 32% | 95% | |
7 | 54% | 63% | Median |
8 | 7% | 9% | |
9 | 2% | 2% | |
10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 97% | |
2 | 0% | 97% | |
3 | 2% | 97% | |
4 | 40% | 95% | |
5 | 48% | 55% | Median |
6 | 7% | 7% | |
7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
8 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 62% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 38% | |
2 | 0% | 38% | |
3 | 19% | 38% | |
4 | 18% | 19% | |
5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.5% | |
2 | 0% | 0.5% | |
3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 4% | 100% | |
7 | 29% | 95% | |
8 | 32% | 67% | Median |
9 | 29% | 35% | |
10 | 6% | 6% | |
11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CISE
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–5 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 861
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.81%