Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, 4–6 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 25.1% | 23.4–26.9% | 22.9–27.4% | 22.5–27.9% | 21.7–28.8% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–24.0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 14.5% | 13.2–16.0% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.5–16.8% | 11.8–17.6% |
Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.5% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 13 | 12–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0% | 100% | |
15 | 0% | 100% | |
16 | 0% | 100% | |
17 | 0% | 100% | |
18 | 0.9% | 100% | |
19 | 3% | 99.1% | |
20 | 10% | 96% | |
21 | 13% | 86% | |
22 | 56% | 73% | Median |
23 | 4% | 17% | |
24 | 12% | 13% | |
25 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
27 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
13 | 0.7% | 100% | |
14 | 12% | 99.3% | |
15 | 5% | 87% | |
16 | 59% | 82% | Median |
17 | 11% | 23% | |
18 | 9% | 12% | |
19 | 3% | 3% | |
20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
21 | 0% | 0% | |
22 | 0% | 0% | |
23 | 0% | 0% | |
24 | 0% | 0% | |
25 | 0% | 0% | |
26 | 0% | 0% | |
27 | 0% | 0% | |
28 | 0% | 0% | |
29 | 0% | 0% | |
30 | 0% | 0% | |
31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
10 | 4% | 99.9% | |
11 | 6% | 96% | |
12 | 24% | 90% | |
13 | 57% | 66% | Median |
14 | 7% | 8% | |
15 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 1.3% | 100% | |
9 | 4% | 98.7% | |
10 | 21% | 95% | |
11 | 25% | 74% | Median |
12 | 41% | 49% | |
13 | 8% | 9% | |
14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 1.5% | 100% | |
6 | 17% | 98.5% | |
7 | 70% | 81% | Median |
8 | 10% | 11% | |
9 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 2% | 100% | |
5 | 63% | 98% | Median |
6 | 29% | 35% | |
7 | 5% | 6% | |
8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
9 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 14% | |
2 | 0% | 14% | |
3 | 12% | 14% | |
4 | 2% | 2% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
3 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
5 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unione Popolare (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
Lega Nord (ID)
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 1.3% | 100% | |
9 | 4% | 98.7% | |
10 | 21% | 95% | |
11 | 25% | 74% | Median |
12 | 41% | 49% | |
13 | 8% | 9% | |
14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Corriere della Sera
- Fieldwork period: 4–6 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.92%