Opinion Poll by Lab2101 for Affari Italiani, 6–9 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 24.7% | 23.0–26.5% | 22.5–27.0% | 22.1–27.5% | 21.3–28.4% |
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.3% | 21.6–25.1% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.9% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 15.7% | 14.3–17.3% | 13.9–17.7% | 13.6–18.1% | 12.9–18.9% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 20% | 92% | |
| 20 | 29% | 72% | Median |
| 21 | 23% | 43% | |
| 22 | 18% | 20% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 35% | 95% | |
| 20 | 30% | 60% | Median |
| 21 | 22% | 30% | |
| 22 | 6% | 7% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 12% | 98% | |
| 13 | 34% | 86% | |
| 14 | 36% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 16% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 17% | 98.7% | |
| 10 | 45% | 81% | Median |
| 11 | 29% | 36% | |
| 12 | 6% | 7% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 34% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 55% | 65% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 15% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 60% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 24% | 25% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 14 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 12% | 98% | |
| 13 | 34% | 86% | |
| 14 | 36% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 16% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Lab2101
- Commissioner(s): Affari Italiani
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.20%