Opinion Poll by Piepoli, 9 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 23.6% | 21.3–26.2% | 20.6–26.9% | 20.1–27.5% | 19.0–28.8% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 21.6% | 19.4–24.1% | 18.7–24.8% | 18.2–25.4% | 17.2–26.7% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 12.0% | 10.3–14.1% | 9.8–14.6% | 9.4–15.2% | 8.7–16.2% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 11.6% | 9.9–13.6% | 9.5–14.2% | 9.1–14.7% | 8.3–15.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 9.6% | 8.1–11.5% | 7.7–12.0% | 7.3–12.5% | 6.6–13.5% |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.4–8.2% | 5.0–8.7% | 4.7–9.1% | 4.2–10.0% |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% | 2.6–6.1% | 2.2–6.8% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.1–3.6% | 0.9–4.2% |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.1–3.6% | 0.9–4.2% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.4% | 1.1–3.6% | 0.9–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–25 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 17 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–22 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–14 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 7% | 98% | |
| 18 | 8% | 91% | |
| 19 | 27% | 83% | |
| 20 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 21 | 22% | 37% | |
| 22 | 7% | 15% | |
| 23 | 5% | 8% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 25 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 8% | 97% | |
| 16 | 24% | 88% | |
| 17 | 21% | 65% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 44% | |
| 19 | 14% | 25% | |
| 20 | 7% | 11% | |
| 21 | 4% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 18% | 93% | |
| 10 | 31% | 75% | Median |
| 11 | 30% | 44% | |
| 12 | 9% | 13% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 16% | 87% | |
| 10 | 37% | 71% | Median |
| 11 | 23% | 34% | |
| 12 | 8% | 10% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 16% | 96% | |
| 8 | 23% | 80% | |
| 9 | 35% | 57% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 23% | |
| 11 | 7% | 9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 26% | 88% | |
| 6 | 41% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 16% | 22% | |
| 8 | 5% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 56% | |
| 2 | 0% | 56% | |
| 3 | 5% | 56% | |
| 4 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 4% | 7% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 10 | 0% | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 18% | 93% | |
| 10 | 31% | 75% | Median |
| 11 | 30% | 44% | |
| 12 | 9% | 13% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Piepoli
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.89%