Opinion Poll by Noto Sondaggi for Rai 1, 16 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 18.5% 17.0–20.2% 16.6–20.6% 16.2–21.0% 15.5–21.8%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Impegno Civico (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 21–24 21–26 20–26 19–27
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 14 13–15 12–16 12–16 12–17
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–16
Lega Nord (ID) 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–9
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0 7 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Impegno Civico (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.9% 100%  
20 3% 99.1%  
21 9% 96%  
22 29% 87%  
23 26% 58% Median
24 22% 32%  
25 3% 10%  
26 7% 7%  
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 7% 99.6%  
13 29% 92%  
14 31% 63% Median
15 23% 32%  
16 8% 9%  
17 0.8% 0.9%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 5% 99.6%  
12 16% 95%  
13 36% 79% Median
14 34% 43%  
15 8% 9%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 22% 98%  
7 46% 77% Median
8 27% 31%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 39% 95%  
7 46% 56% Median
8 9% 10%  
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Azione–Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 13% 100%  
6 29% 87%  
7 48% 58% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 28% 52% Median
4 23% 24%  
5 1.3% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.5% 0.6%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Impegno Civico (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 22% 98%  
7 46% 77% Median
8 27% 31%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations