Opinion Poll by Tecnè for Agenzia Dire, 18 November 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 3.7% 30.1% 28.3–32.0% 27.8–32.6% 27.3–33.0% 26.5–33.9%
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 21.2% 17.4% 15.9–19.0% 15.5–19.5% 15.2–19.9% 14.5–20.7%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 40.8% 16.4% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.4% 14.2–18.8% 13.6–19.6%
Lega Nord (ID) 6.2% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Forza Italia (EPP) 16.8% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–28
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) 17 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Partito Democratico (S&D) 31 12 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–15
Lega Nord (ID) 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Forza Italia (EPP) 13 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.6% 100%  
22 4% 99.3%  
23 16% 95%  
24 28% 80%  
25 32% 52% Median
26 14% 20%  
27 5% 6%  
28 1.3% 1.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 20% 96%  
14 40% 76% Median
15 25% 36%  
16 10% 12%  
17 1.2% 1.4% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 14% 98%  
12 38% 83% Median
13 33% 46%  
14 10% 12%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Lega Nord (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 22% 98%  
7 54% 77% Median
8 21% 22%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Azione–Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 12% 99.8%  
6 49% 88% Median
7 34% 39%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.1% 100%  
5 23% 98.9%  
6 55% 76% Median
7 20% 21%  
8 1.3% 1.4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 9% 16%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0.5% 0.7%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lega Nord (ID) 5 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9

Lega Nord (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 22% 98%  
7 54% 77% Median
8 21% 22%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations